arXiv:2511.03242q-bio.PEcs.LG2025-11

揭示克里特岛特有植物分布的环境驱动因素,为保护规划提供科学依据。

Topography, climate, land cover, and biodiversity: Explaining endemic richness and management implications on a Mediterranean island

  • 用神经网络分析地形、气候和土地覆盖对特有物种的影响。
  • 海拔变化和气候变异是特有物种丰富度最强的预测因子。
  • 山区和气候多变区应优先保护,兼顾生态服务功能。

岛屿特有性由环境、生态与进化因素复杂交互决定,但地形、气候和土地覆盖的相对贡献尚未完全量化。本研究以地中海生物多样性热点克里特岛为对象,利用物种分布、地形复杂度、气候变异性、土地覆盖和土壤特征的空间显式数据,采用人工神经网络模型评估各预测因子的重要性,并识别特有性热点。结果表明,物种总丰富度、海拔范围和气候变异性是特有物种丰富度最强的预测因子,反映了生物多样性、地形异质性和气候梯度在创造多样化生境与微避难所中的作用,促进物种形成并缓冲灭绝风险。特有性热点与高物种总丰富度区域仅部分重叠,说明总物种丰富度虽为最优指标但仍不完全等同于特有性。这些环境异质区还提供关键生态系统服务,包括土壤稳定、授粉和文化价值,正面临旅游、可再生能源开发、土地利用变化和气候变化的威胁。研究强调在保护规划中应优先考虑山地和气候多变区域,整合生态系统服务考量,并重视岛内空间异质性。通过将特有性的环境驱动因素与生物多样性格局和生态系统功能直接关联,本研究为克里特岛及其他具有相似地质和生物地理背景的地中海岛屿提供了基于证据的保护规划框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Island endemism is shaped by complex interactions among environmental, ecological, and evolutionary factors, yet the relative contributions of topography, climate, and land cover remain incompletely quantified. We investigated the drivers of endemic plant richness across Crete, a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot, using spatially explicit data on species distributions, topographic complexity, climatic variability, land cover, and soil characteristics. Artificial Neural Network models, a machine learning tool, were employed to assess the relative importance of these predictors and to identify hotspots of endemism. We found that total species richness, elevation range, and climatic variability were the strongest predictors of endemic richness, reflecting the role of biodiversity, topographic heterogeneity, and climatic gradients in generating diverse habitats and micro-refugia that promote speciation and buffer extinction risk. Endemic hotspots only partially overlapped with areas of high total species richness, indicating that total species richness was the optimal from the ones examined, yet an imperfect surrogate. These environmentally heterogeneous areas also provide critical ecosystem services, including soil stabilization, pollination, and cultural value, which are increasingly threatened by tourism, renewable energy development, land-use change, and climate impacts. Our findings underscore the importance of prioritizing mountainous and climatically variable regions in conservation planning, integrating ecosystem service considerations, and accounting for within-island spatial heterogeneity. By explicitly linking the environmental drivers of endemism to both biodiversity patterns and ecosystem function, this study provides a framework for evidence-based conservation planning in Crete and other Mediterranean islands with similar geological and biogeographic contexts.

生物多样性保护规划岛屿生态

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