用动态图神经网络实时预测高比例新能源电网的稳定性,准确率超99%。
A Dynamic Recurrent Adjacency Memory Network for Mixed-Generation Power System Stability Forecasting
- 融合物理机制与深度学习,用滑动窗口分解动态模式构建时变图结构。
- 在3个测试系统上准确率达99.69%~99.90%,优于传统方法和现有图模型。
- 能自动筛选关键测量点,降维82%仍保持性能,适合实际调度中心部署。
高比例基于逆变器的资源使现代电力系统呈现复杂动态行为,挑战传统稳定性评估方法的可扩展性和泛化能力。本文提出动态循环邻接记忆网络(DRAMN),结合物理信息分析与深度学习实现电力系统稳定性实时预测。该框架利用滑动窗口动态模态分解,从相量测量单元和传感器数据构建时变多层邻接矩阵,捕捉模态参与因子、耦合强度、相位关系及频谱能量分布等系统动态特征。不同于将空间与时间依赖关系分开处理,DRAMN将图卷积操作直接嵌入循环门控机制,实现动态演化与时间依赖的同步建模。在改进的IEEE 9节点、39节点及多端高压直流网络上进行广泛验证,平均准确率分别达到99.85%、99.90%和99.69%,超越所有对比基准,包括经典机器学习算法和近期图基模型。框架识别出最优测量组合,使特征维度降低82%而性能无损。小信号与暂态稳定事件主导测量的相关性分析,验证了其在不同稳定性现象间的泛化能力。DRAMN在实现最先进准确率的同时提升可解释性,适用于现代控制中心实时部署。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Modern power systems with high penetration of inverter-based resources exhibit complex dynamic behaviors that challenge the scalability and generalizability of traditional stability assessment methods. This paper presents a dynamic recurrent adjacency memory network (DRAMN) that combines physics-informed analysis with deep learning for real-time power system stability forecasting. The framework employs sliding-window dynamic mode decomposition to construct time-varying, multi-layer adjacency matrices from phasor measurement unit and sensor data to capture system dynamics such as modal participation factors, coupling strengths, phase relationships, and spectral energy distributions. As opposed to processing spatial and temporal dependencies separately, DRAMN integrates graph convolution operations directly within recurrent gating mechanisms, enabling simultaneous modeling of evolving dynamics and temporal dependencies. Extensive validations on modified IEEE 9-bus, 39-bus, and a multi-terminal HVDC network demonstrate high performance, achieving 99.85%, 99.90%, and 99.69% average accuracies, respectively, surpassing all tested benchmarks, including classical machine learning algorithms and recent graph-based models. The framework identifies optimal combinations of measurements that reduce feature dimensionality by 82% without performance degradation. Correlation analysis between dominant measurements for small-signal and transient stability events validates generalizability across different stability phenomena. DRAMN achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while providing enhanced interpretability for power system operators, making it suitable for real-time deployment in modern control centers.
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