arXiv:2511.03807cs.LG2025-11被引 9

动态调整信用评分解释,让模型在变化中依然公平透明。

Fair and Explainable Credit-Scoring under Concept Drift: Adaptive Explanation Frameworks for Evolving Populations

  • 用三种自适应方法实时更新解释基准,应对数据分布变化。
  • 新方法显著提升解释稳定性,降低不同群体的不公平影响。
  • 适合关注信贷公平性与模型可解释性的研究者和从业者。

不断变化的借款人行为、经济环境及监管政策持续改变信用评分系统的基础数据分布。传统可解释性方法(如SHAP)假设数据静态且背景分布固定,在概念漂移时会产生不稳定甚至不公平的解释。本文通过XGBoost预测模型,结合三种自适应SHAP变体:(A) 按区间重加权解释以应对特征分布偏移,(B) 使用滑动窗口背景样本进行漂移感知再基准化,(C) 采用增量岭回归在线校准代理模型。在多年度信用数据集上评估,对比静态SHAP,新方法在预测性能(AUC、F1)、方向与排序稳定性(余弦相似度、肯德尔τ)及公平性(群体均等性、再校准)上均表现更优。鲁棒性测试(反事实扰动、背景敏感性分析、代理变量检测)进一步验证其在真实漂移条件下的可靠性。结果表明,自适应可解释性是维持数据驱动信贷系统透明、问责与伦理可靠性的实用机制,适用于任何随人口变化而演进的决策场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Evolving borrower behaviors, shifting economic conditions, and changing regulatory landscapes continuously reshape the data distributions underlying modern credit-scoring systems. Conventional explainability techniques, such as SHAP, assume static data and fixed background distributions, making their explanations unstable and potentially unfair when concept drift occurs. This study addresses that challenge by developing adaptive explanation frameworks that recalibrate interpretability and fairness in dynamically evolving credit models. Using a multi-year credit dataset, we integrate predictive modeling via XGBoost with three adaptive SHAP variants: (A) per-slice explanation reweighting that adjusts for feature distribution shifts, (B) drift-aware SHAP rebaselining with sliding-window background samples, and (C) online surrogate calibration using incremental Ridge regression. Each method is benchmarked against static SHAP explanations using metrics of predictive performance (AUC, F1), directional and rank stability (cosine, Kendall tau), and fairness (demographic parity and recalibration). Results show that adaptive methods, particularly rebaselined and surrogate-based explanations, substantially improve temporal stability and reduce disparate impact across demographic groups without degrading predictive accuracy. Robustness tests, including counterfactual perturbations, background sensitivity analysis, and proxy-variable detection, confirm the resilience of adaptive explanations under real-world drift conditions. These findings establish adaptive explainability as a practical mechanism for sustaining transparency, accountability, and ethical reliability in data-driven credit systems, and more broadly, in any domain where decision models evolve with population change.

信用评分可解释性公平性概念漂移

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