用大模型模拟政治博弈,让选区划分更公平
Agentmandering: A Game-Theoretic Framework for Fair Redistricting via Large Language Model Agents
- 让两个对立阵营的大模型轮流选区,模拟真实政治博弈
- 在全美各州测试中,偏袒性降低,结果波动小100~1000倍
- 适合关注选举公正性的政策制定者和研究者
选区划分直接影响选票如何转化为政治权力。现有计算方法多生成大量合法选区方案,却忽视了选择过程中的策略博弈,导致党派可挑选技术合规但有利的方案。我们提出 extbf{Agentmandering},将选区划分重新定义为两个代表对立利益的智能体之间的回合制谈判。借鉴博弈论中的 extit{Choose-and-Freeze} 协议,利用大语言模型(LLM)代理在候选地图中交替选择并冻结选区,逐步完成全州划分,每一步都受约束且可解释。基于2020年后美国人口普查数据对所有州的评估显示,该方法显著降低党派偏见与不公,方差比标准基线低2至3个数量级。结果在摇摆州中尤为稳定,兼具公平性与鲁棒性。代码已公开于 https://github.com/Lihaogx/AgentMandering。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Redistricting plays a central role in shaping how votes are translated into political power. While existing computational methods primarily aim to generate large ensembles of legally valid districting plans, they often neglect the strategic dynamics involved in the selection process. This oversight creates opportunities for partisan actors to cherry-pick maps that, while technically compliant, are politically advantageous. Simply satisfying formal constraints does not ensure fairness when the selection process itself can be manipulated. We propose \textbf{Agentmandering}, a framework that reimagines redistricting as a turn-based negotiation between two agents representing opposing political interests. Drawing inspiration from game-theoretic ideas, particularly the \textit{Choose-and-Freeze} protocol, our method embeds strategic interaction into the redistricting process via large language model (LLM) agents. Agents alternate between selecting and freezing districts from a small set of candidate maps, gradually partitioning the state through constrained and interpretable choices. Evaluation on post-2020 U.S. Census data across all states shows that Agentmandering significantly reduces partisan bias and unfairness, while achieving 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower variance than standard baselines. These results demonstrate both fairness and stability, especially in swing-state scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/Lihaogx/AgentMandering.
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