arXiv:2511.04106physics.soc-phcs.CL2025-11被引 2

发现语言扩散多呈慢速增长,提出简洁模型解析社会传播规律。

Sub-exponential Growth Dynamics in Complex Systems: A Piecewise Power-Law Model for the Diffusion of New Words and Names

  • 用分段幂律模型刻画语言扩散的复杂增长曲线。
  • 55%的扩散模式符合亚指数增长,峰值主要由增速决定。
  • 模型可解释传播偏好,适合研究社交网络与流行趋势。

社会中思想与语言的传播传统上用S型模型(如逻辑斯蒂曲线)描述。然而,流行病学中常见的亚指数增长——即慢于指数级的增长——在更广泛的社会现象中被忽视。本文提出一种分段幂律模型,以少量参数刻画复杂增长曲线。基于约十亿篇日本博客文章与维基百科词汇的关联数据,结合英、西、日语的网络搜索趋势,系统分析了2,963个可靠扩散项(满足足够持续时间、峰值及单调增长)。结果表明,1,625项(55%)无突变的扩散曲线可用一个或两个片段良好拟合。单段曲线中,形状参数α的众数接近0.5,显示亚指数增长普遍;峰值扩散规模主要由增长率R决定,α和持续时间T影响较小;α随话题性质变化,小众/本地话题α较小,广泛传播话题α较大。微观行为模型表明,α可作为对外传播偏好的指标。研究揭示亚指数增长是社会传播的普遍规律,该模型为统一描述、比较和解读多样化增长曲线提供实用框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The diffusion of ideas and language in society has conventionally been described by S-shaped models, such as the logistic curve. However, the role of sub-exponential growth -- a slower-than-exponential pattern known in epidemiology -- has been largely overlooked in broader social phenomena. Here, we present a piecewise power-law model to characterize complex growth curves with a few parameters. We systematically analyzed a large-scale dataset of approximately one billion Japanese blog articles linked to Wikipedia vocabulary, and observed consistent patterns in web search trend data (English, Spanish, and Japanese). Our analysis of 2,963 items, selected for reliable estimation (e.g., sufficient duration/peak, monotonic growth), reveals that 1,625 (55%) diffusion patterns without abrupt level shifts were adequately described by one or two segments. For single-segment curves, we found that (i) the mode of the shape parameter $α$ was near 0.5, indicating prevalent sub-exponential growth; (ii) the peak diffusion scale is primarily determined by the growth rate $R$, with minor contributions from $α$ or the duration $T$; and (iii) $α$ showed a tendency to vary with the nature of the topic, being smaller for niche/local topics and larger for widely shared ones. Furthermore, a micro-behavioral model of outward (stranger) vs. inward (community) contact suggests that $α$ can be interpreted as an index of the preference for outward-oriented communication. These findings suggest that sub-exponential growth is a common pattern of social diffusion, and our model provides a practical framework for consistently describing, comparing, and interpreting complex and diverse growth curves.

社会传播增长模型语言扩散

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