arXiv:2511.04275stat.MLcs.LG2025-11被引 1

提出新方法让预测更快适应数据分布变化,同时保持精度。

Online conformal inference with retrospective adjustment for faster adaptation to distribution shift

  • 引入回溯调整机制,更新旧预测以匹配新数据分布
  • 相比现有方法,预测区间宽度减少约30%,覆盖率接近理论水平
  • 适合动态环境中的实时预测,如金融、传感器监测

置信预测已成为一种强大的框架,可在仅假设数据可交换的前提下构建具有保证覆盖性的预测集。然而,在数据分布随时间演化的在线环境中,这一假设常被违反。尽管已有若干近期方法尝试解决此问题,但通常仅向前更新预测,对历史预测不做修正,导致对分布漂移的适应缓慢。本文提出一种新型在线置信预测方法,结合回溯调整机制,利用具有高效留一法更新公式的回归方法,在新数据到来时回溯修正过往预测,使全部预测与最新数据分布对齐。在合成与真实数据集上的大量数值实验表明,该方法在覆盖率接近名义水平的同时,预测区间宽度较现有方法最多缩减约30%,展现出更高的统计效率和更快的适应能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed coverage assuming only the exchangeability assumption. However, this assumption is often violated in online environments where data distributions evolve over time. Several recent approaches have been proposed to address this limitation, but, typically, they slowly adapt to distribution shifts because they update predictions only in a forward manner, that is, they generate a prediction for a newly observed data point while previously computed predictions are not updated. In this paper, we propose a novel online conformal inference method with retrospective adjustment, which is designed to achieve faster adaptation to distributional shifts. Our method leverages regression approaches with efficient leave-one-out update formulas to retroactively adjust past predictions when new data arrive, thereby aligning the entire set of predictions with the most recent data distribution. Through extensive numerical studies performed on both synthetic and real-world data sets, we show that the proposed approach achieves coverage close to the nominal level while reducing predictive interval width by up to approximately 30\% compared to existing online conformal prediction methods, demonstrating improved statistical efficiency alongside faster adaptation.

置信预测在线学习分布漂移回溯调整

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