提出贝叶斯方法处理重症监护数据缺失,提升时序模型可信度。
LUME-DBN: Full Bayesian Learning of DBNs from Incomplete data in Intensive Care
- 用吉布斯采样将缺失值建模为高斯分布参数,实现逐轮插补
- 在真实重症数据上重建误差低于MICE,收敛性更优
- 适合需要高置信度时序推断的临床场景,如危重患者管理
动态贝叶斯网络(DBNs)因其能建模患者数据中复杂的时序关系并保持可解释性,正日益应用于医疗领域。然而,现有处理纵向临床数据缺失的方法多源自静态贝叶斯网络,未能充分考虑数据的时间特性,限制了对时间不确定性量化的能力,这在重症监护等关键场景中尤为严重。尽管DBNs潜力巨大,但整合缺失数据处理的完整贝叶斯框架仍不成熟。本文提出一种基于吉布斯采样的新方法,用于从不完整数据中学习DBNs。该方法将每个缺失值视为服从高斯分布的未知参数,在每轮迭代中从其全条件分布中采样,实现合理插补与不确定性估计。我们在模拟数据和真实重症监护数据集上进行了评估,结果表明,相比标准的模型无关方法MICE,本方法在重建精度和收敛性方面表现更优。这些结果凸显了在时序模型中引入完整贝叶斯推断的临床意义,可提供更可靠的插补结果,并加深对模型行为的理解。该方法有助于实现更安全、更明智的临床决策,尤其适用于缺失数据频繁且影响重大的场景。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are increasingly used in healthcare due to their ability to model complex temporal relationships in patient data while maintaining interpretability, an essential feature for clinical decision-making. However, existing approaches to handling missing data in longitudinal clinical datasets are largely derived from static Bayesian networks literature, failing to properly account for the temporal nature of the data. This gap limits the ability to quantify uncertainty over time, which is particularly critical in settings such as intensive care, where understanding the temporal dynamics is fundamental for model trustworthiness and applicability across diverse patient groups. Despite the potential of DBNs, a full Bayesian framework that integrates missing data handling remains underdeveloped. In this work, we propose a novel Gibbs sampling-based method for learning DBNs from incomplete data. Our method treats each missing value as an unknown parameter following a Gaussian distribution. At each iteration, the unobserved values are sampled from their full conditional distributions, allowing for principled imputation and uncertainty estimation. We evaluate our method on both simulated datasets and real-world intensive care data from critically ill patients. Compared to standard model-agnostic techniques such as MICE, our Bayesian approach demonstrates superior reconstruction accuracy and convergence properties. These results highlight the clinical relevance of incorporating full Bayesian inference in temporal models, providing more reliable imputations and offering deeper insight into model behavior. Our approach supports safer and more informed clinical decision-making, particularly in settings where missing data are frequent and potentially impactful.
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