arXiv:2511.04445cs.LGstat.ML2025-11

ForecastGAN通过分解与对抗训练,提升多时序预测的准确性与适应性。

ForecastGAN: A Decomposition-Based Adversarial Framework for Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting

  • 将时序分解为趋势与季节成分,结合模型选择模块适配不同预测周期。
  • 在11个基准数据集上,短时预测优于主流Transformer模型,长时表现也保持竞争力。
  • 支持数值与类别特征融合,减少调参需求,适合实际业务场景部署。

时间序列预测在金融、供应链管理等领域至关重要。本文提出ForecastGAN,一种基于分解的对抗式多时序预测框架,解决现有方法在多预测周期下的局限性。尽管Transformer模型在长期预测中表现优异,但在短期预测中常表现不佳,且通常忽略类别特征。ForecastGAN包含三个集成模块:分解模块提取趋势与季节成分;模型选择模块根据预测周期自动选取最优神经网络结构;对抗训练模块通过条件生成对抗网络提升预测鲁棒性。与传统方法不同,ForecastGAN能有效融合数值与类别特征。我们在涵盖多种预测周期的11个基准多变量时间序列数据集上验证了该框架,结果表明其在短时预测中持续优于当前最先进的Transformer模型,同时在长时预测中仍具竞争力。本研究建立了一种更通用的时间序列预测方法,能够自适应特定场景,且在无需大量超参数调优的情况下,对多样数据特征保持强性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is essential across domains from finance to supply chain management. This paper introduces ForecastGAN, a novel decomposition based adversarial framework addressing limitations in existing approaches for multi-horizon predictions. Although transformer models excel in long-term forecasting, they often underperform in short-term scenarios and typically ignore categorical features. ForecastGAN operates through three integrated modules: a Decomposition Module that extracts seasonality and trend components; a Model Selection Module that identifies optimal neural network configurations based on forecasting horizon; and an Adversarial Training Module that enhances prediction robustness through Conditional Generative Adversarial Network training. Unlike conventional approaches, ForecastGAN effectively integrates both numerical and categorical features. We validate our framework on eleven benchmark multivariate time series datasets that span various forecasting horizons. The results show that ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting while remaining competitive for long-term horizons. This research establishes a more generalizable approach to time series forecasting that adapts to specific contexts while maintaining strong performance across diverse data characteristics without extensive hyperparameter tuning.

时间序列对抗训练多步预测

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。