大模型能复现人类合作行为,助力社会决策研究。
Large language models replicate and predict human cooperation across experiments in game theory
- 用系统化提示框架测试大模型在121场博弈中的决策模式。
- Llama高度复现人类合作行为,Qwen更接近纳什均衡预测。
- 无需角色设定即可模拟群体行为,适合探索新博弈场景。
大型语言模型(LLMs)在高风险领域作为决策代理,以及在社会科学中模仿人类行为的应用日益广泛,但其与人类决策的对齐程度仍不明确。本文通过复现大规模博弈论实验,并引入系统性提示与探测框架评估机器行为。测试了三种常用开源模型(Llama、Mistral、Qwen),在涵盖四种经典博弈类型的121场双人博弈中,Llama以高保真度再现人类合作模式,而Qwen则更贴近纳什均衡预测。通过行为表型分析发现,人类与Llama具有相似的嫉妒型决策特征,而Qwen和Mistral则表现不同。基于注意力的收益显著性分析显示,Llama以分层依赖方式处理收益信息,而Qwen和Mistral则无此结构,暗示其更贴近人类行为的机制基础。无需角色提示即可实现群体行为复现,简化了模拟流程。扩展实验参数空间后,生成并预注册了关于新型博弈配置的可检验假设。结果表明,经适当配置的大模型可复现人类集体行为模式,表现出类人决策特征,并支持对未探索实验空间的系统性探索,为传统行为研究提供互补方法,生成关于人类社会决策的新实证预测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as decision-making agents in high-stakes domains and as imitators of human behavior in the social and behavioral sciences. Yet how closely LLMs mirror human decision-making remains poorly understood. This gap is critical: misalignment could produce harmful outcomes in practice, while failure to replicate human behavior renders LLMs ineffective as social simulators. Here, we address this gap by replicating large-scale game-theoretic experiments and by introducing a systematic prompting and probing framework for machine-behavioral evaluation. We test three open models typically used to power agents (Llama, Mistral, and Qwen). Across 121 dyadic games spanning four classical game types, Llama reproduces human cooperation patterns with high fidelity, while Qwen aligns closely with Nash equilibrium predictions. Characterizing models through behavioral phenotyping, we find that humans and Llama share an envious decision profile, while Qwen and Mistral exhibit different profiles. An attention-based analysis of payoff salience reveals Llama processes payoff information in a structured, layer-dependent manner absent in Qwen and Mistral, suggesting a mechanistic basis for its closer alignment with human behavior. Population-level behavioral replication is achieved without persona-based prompting, simplifying the simulation process. Extending the experimental parameter space beyond the original human-tested games, we generate and preregister testable hypotheses for novel game configurations. Our findings demonstrate appropriately configured LLMs can replicate aggregate human behavioral patterns, exhibit human-like decision phenotypes, and enable systematic exploration of unexplored experimental spaces, offering a complementary approach to traditional behavioral research that generates new empirical predictions about human social decision-making.
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