量化生成式AI的气候风险,揭示其碳排放与地域、使用方式的关系。
Quantifying the Climate Risk of Generative AI: Region-Aware Carbon Accounting with G-TRACE and the AI Sustainability Pyramid
- 提出G-TRACE框架,按地区和模态追踪生成式AI的碳排放。
- 分析吉卜力风格图像生成热潮,估算出4309兆瓦时能耗和2068吨二氧化碳排放。
- 构建AI可持续性金字塔,为绿色部署提供可操作的治理方案。
生成式人工智能(GenAI)作为快速扩张的数字基础设施,其能源需求和相关二氧化碳排放正成为新型气候风险。本文提出G-TRACE(GenAI Transformative Carbon Estimator)——一种跨模态、区域感知的框架,用于量化不同模态和部署地理区域在训练与推理阶段的碳排放。结合真实数据分析与微观仿真,G-TRACE测量了文本、图像、视频等输出类型的单位能耗与碳强度,并揭示去中心化推理如何将微小的单次查询能耗累积为系统级影响。以2024–2025年吉卜力风格图像生成趋势为例,估算出累计4,309 MWh能源消耗与2,068 tCO2排放,说明病毒式传播如何使个体数字行为演变为吨级环境后果。基于上述发现,本文提出AI可持续性金字塔,一个涵盖七个层级的治理模型,将碳核算指标(L1–L7)与运营成熟度、优化策略及责任管理相连接,推动量化排放数据向可持续部署政策转化。该研究为新兴数字基础设施作为气候风险新类别提供了量化评估方法,支持适应性治理机制,助力技术革新与全球脱碳目标协同推进。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) represents a rapidly expanding digital infrastructure whose energy demand and associated CO2 emissions are emerging as a new category of climate risk. This study introduces G-TRACE (GenAI Transformative Carbon Estimator), a cross-modal, region-aware framework that quantifies training- and inference-related emissions across modalities and deployment geographies. Using real-world analytics and microscopic simulation, G-TRACE measures energy use and carbon intensity per output type (text, image, video) and reveals how decentralized inference amplifies small per-query energy costs into system-level impacts. Through the Ghibli-style image generation trend (2024-2025), we estimate 4,309 MWh of energy consumption and 2,068 tCO2 emissions, illustrating how viral participation inflates individual digital actions into tonne-scale consequences. Building on these findings, we propose the AI Sustainability Pyramid, a seven-level governance model linking carbon accounting metrics (L1-L7) with operational readiness, optimization, and stewardship. This framework translates quantitative emission metrics into actionable policy guidance for sustainable AI deployment. The study contributes to the quantitative assessment of emerging digital infrastructures as a novel category of climate risk, supporting adaptive governance for sustainable technology deployment. By situating GenAI within climate-risk frameworks, the work advances data-driven methods for aligning technological innovation with global decarbonization and resilience objectives.
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