arXiv:2511.04988cs.LG2025-11被引 1

融合断点检测与去噪的深度学习模型,显著提升碳价预测精度。

A Hybrid Deep Learning based Carbon Price Forecasting Framework with Structural Breakpoints Detection and Signal Denoising

  • 用PELT算法找市场断点,结合小波变换去噪,再输入TCN模型
  • 相比最强基线,误差降低22.35%(RMSE)和18.63%(MAE)
  • 适合关注碳交易、金融时间序列预测的研究者与政策制定者

准确预测碳价对能源决策、可持续规划和脱碳策略至关重要,但频繁政策干预和市场冲击导致结构断点与高频噪声,使预测困难。现有研究虽引入断点检测,却常将去噪与建模分离,且缺乏对先进深度学习架构的系统评估,限制了鲁棒性与泛化能力。本文提出一种综合混合框架,集成Bai-Perron、ICSS、PELT断点检测算法,小波信号去噪,并结合LSTM、GRU、TCN三种先进深度学习模型。基于2007至2024年欧盟碳排放配额(EUA)现货价格及能源价格、政策指标等外生特征,构建单变量与多变量数据集进行对比评估。实验表明,所提PELT-WT-TCN模型预测精度最高,相较最优基线模型(含断点与小波+LSTM),RMSE降低22.35%,MAE降低18.63%;相较原始未分解的LSTM模型,RMSE降低70.55%,MAE降低74.42%。结果表明,将结构感知与多尺度分解融入深度学习架构,可显著提升碳价及其他非平稳金融时间序列的预测准确性与可解释性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately forecasting carbon prices is essential for informed energy market decision-making, guiding sustainable energy planning, and supporting effective decarbonization strategies. However, it remains challenging due to structural breaks and high-frequency noise caused by frequent policy interventions and market shocks. Existing studies, including the most recent baseline approaches, have attempted to incorporate breakpoints but often treat denoising and modeling as separate processes and lack systematic evaluation across advanced deep learning architectures, limiting the robustness and the generalization capability. To address these gaps, this paper proposes a comprehensive hybrid framework that integrates structural break detection (Bai-Perron, ICSS, and PELT algorithms), wavelet signal denoising, and three state-of-the-art deep learning models (LSTM, GRU, and TCN). Using European Union Allowance (EUA) spot prices from 2007 to 2024 and exogenous features such as energy prices and policy indicators, the framework constructs univariate and multivariate datasets for comparative evaluation. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed PELT-WT-TCN achieves the highest prediction accuracy, reducing forecasting errors by 22.35% in RMSE and 18.63% in MAE compared to the state-of-the-art baseline model (Breakpoints with Wavelet and LSTM), and by 70.55% in RMSE and 74.42% in MAE compared to the original LSTM without decomposition from the same baseline study. These findings underscore the value of integrating structural awareness and multiscale decomposition into deep learning architectures to enhance accuracy and interpretability in carbon price forecasting and other nonstationary financial time series.

碳价预测深度学习时间序列去噪

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