让多个时间序列模型协作,动态加权提升预测精度。
Synapse: Adaptive Arbitration of Complementary Expertise in Time Series Foundational Models
- 通过动态调整各模型权重,融合多个时间序列模型的专长。
- 在多种任务和预测时长下均超越单个模型和传统集成方法。
- 适合需要高精度预测的工业、金融等场景使用。
预训练时间序列基础模型(TSFMs)在处理具有复杂特征的时间序列(如多周期性、趋势和长程依赖)方面取得显著进展。然而,由于训练方式和数据源差异,不同TSFMs在各类任务、领域和预测时长上的表现参差不齐。本文系统分析了不同TSFMs在多样预测场景中的性能特异性,并提出一种新型仲裁框架Synapse,可动态调用一组TSFMs,根据上下文自适应分配预测权重,并通过从各模型输出分位数中采样构建稳健的预测分布。实验表明,Synapse在多种基准测试中持续优于其他主流集成方法及单一模型,验证了其在时间序列预测中的有效性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Pre-trained Time Series Foundational Models (TSFMs) represent a significant advance, capable of forecasting diverse time series with complex characteristics, including varied seasonalities, trends, and long-range dependencies. Despite their primary goal of universal time series forecasting, their efficacy is far from uniform; divergent training protocols and data sources cause individual TSFMs to exhibit highly variable performance across different forecasting tasks, domains, and horizons. Leveraging this complementary expertise by arbitrating existing TSFM outputs presents a compelling strategy, yet this remains a largely unexplored area of research. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of how different TSFMs exhibit specialized performance profiles across various forecasting settings, and how we can effectively leverage this behavior in arbitration between different time series models. We specifically analyze how factors such as model selection and forecast horizon distribution can influence the efficacy of arbitration strategies. Based on this analysis, we propose Synapse, a novel arbitration framework for TSFMs. Synapse is designed to dynamically leverage a pool of TSFMs, assign and adjust predictive weights based on their relative, context-dependent performance, and construct a robust forecast distribution by adaptively sampling from the output quantiles of constituent models. Experimental results demonstrate that Synapse consistently outperforms other popular ensembling techniques as well as individual TSFMs, demonstrating Synapse's efficacy in time series forecasting.
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