arXiv:2511.05582cs.LGcs.GT2025-11

解决大规模广告拦截中的不确定性建模难题,提升反欺诈效果。

Uncertainty Modeling for Multi-Objective RTA Interception with Distillation Acceleration

  • 通过多目标共享机制,利用平衡指标补偿稀疏标签下的不确定性退化
  • 蒸馏出单次推理模型,推理成本降至原方法的十分之一,保留双重不确定性
  • 在京东电商数据上实现点击欺诈率下降3.59%,转化率提升4.01%

实时拍卖(RTA)拦截决定哪些广告请求进入下游系统,从而控制下游系统学习的数据质量。在京东,外部广告每日产生数百亿级请求,仅RTA通道就达每分钟数百万请求。在如此规模下过滤低质和欺诈流量,需对每个请求的价值进行校准置信度估计,这被建模为不确定性问题。两大挑战:其一,广告标签严重不平衡——交易罕见,我们从理论与实证证明,传统加权不确定性在稀疏场景下会退化为预测概率,丧失信号;其二,如SWAG和贝叶斯神经网络等方法需对每个请求进行多次随机前向传播,全流量评分成本过高。为此提出UMDA框架,通过共享漏斗相关目标的不确定性,用平衡指标的可靠不确定性弥补稀疏目标的退化不确定性。再将多轮教师模型蒸馏为单轮学生模型,以约十分之一的推理成本复现了认知与随机不确定性。在京东电商数据集与公开的Criteo数据集上,UMDA为下游任务提供更有效样本,蒸馏模型也保持该能力。生产中,该模型在近线管道中处理全量流量,生成小时级黑名单用于在线拦截;7天A/B测试显示,在5%真实流量上,点击欺诈率降低3.59%,转化率提升4.01%,拦截率匹配,转化用户基本不变,模型已部署至全流量。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Real-Time Auction (RTA) interception decides which incoming advertising requests reach downstream systems, and therefore controls the quality of the data those systems learn from. At JD.com, off-site advertising produces on the order of hundreds of billions of requests per day, and the RTA channel alone serves up to hundreds of millions of requests per minute. Filtering low-quality and fraudulent traffic at this scale requires estimating each request's value with calibrated confidence, which we treat as an uncertainty modeling problem. Two obstacles stand in the way. First, advertising labels are severely imbalanced: deals are rare, and we show both analytically and empirically that standard weight-based uncertainty degrades under such sparsity, collapsing onto predicted probability and adding no signal. Second, methods such as SWAG and Bayesian neural networks require multiple stochastic forward passes per request, making full-traffic scoring prohibitively expensive. We address both problems with UMDA, a multi-objective framework that shares uncertainty across funnel-correlated objectives, using the reliable uncertainty of a balanced metric to compensate for the degenerate uncertainty of sparse ones. We then distill the multi-pass teacher into a single-pass student that reproduces both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty at roughly one-tenth of the inference cost. On JD e-commerce dataset and the public Criteo dataset, UMDA supplies more effective samples to downstream tasks, and the distilled student preserves this capability. In production, it scores the full traffic in a near-line pipeline that feeds an hourly blacklist for online interception; a seven-day A/B test on 5% of live traffic cuts the click fraud rate by 3.59% and raises CVR by 4.01% at a matched interception ratio while leaving converted users essentially unchanged, and the model has since been deployed to full traffic.

不确定性建模广告反欺诈模型蒸馏多目标学习

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