arXiv:2511.05629cs.LGcs.AI2025-11AAAI被引 2

用物理约束的神经微分方程预测海温,兼顾精度与可解释性。

SSTODE: Ocean-Atmosphere Physics-Informed Neural ODEs for Sea Surface Temperature Prediction

  • 基于流体输运原理构建神经微分方程,显式建模洋流与热扩散。
  • 引入能量交换积分器,融合湍流热通量等外部驱动因素。
  • 可可视化揭示洋流、热扩散和昼夜加热对海温的影响。

海表温度(SST)对上层海洋热力过程与海气相互作用至关重要,具有深远的经济和社会影响。尽管数据驱动模型在SST预测中展现出潜力,但其黑箱特性常导致可解释性差,并忽略关键物理过程。近年来,物理信息神经网络虽受关注,但在复杂海气动态建模中仍受限于:1)海水运动(如沿岸上升流)表征不足;2)外部SST驱动因子(如湍流热通量)整合不够。为此,本文提出SSTODE,一种用于SST预测的物理信息神经常微分方程框架。首先,从流体输运原理推导出常微分方程,结合平流与扩散项建模海洋时空动态;通过变分优化恢复隐含速度场,显式控制SST的时间演化。在此基础上,引入受能量平衡方程启发的能源交换积分器(EEI),以纳入外部强迫因素。由此可深入分析各驱动力成分对SST变化的影响。大量实验表明,SSTODE在全局与区域SST预测基准上均达到领先性能。此外,该模型能可视化揭示平流动态、热扩散模式及日周期加热-冷却过程对SST演变的作用,验证了其可解释性与物理一致性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is crucial for understanding upper-ocean thermal dynamics and ocean-atmosphere interactions, which have profound economic and social impacts. While data-driven models show promise in SST prediction, their black-box nature often limits interpretability and overlooks key physical processes. Recently, physics-informed neural networks have been gaining momentum but struggle with complex ocean-atmosphere dynamics due to 1) inadequate characterization of seawater movement (e.g., coastal upwelling) and 2) insufficient integration of external SST drivers (e.g., turbulent heat fluxes). To address these challenges, we propose SSTODE, a physics-informed Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) framework for SST prediction. First, we derive ODEs from fluid transport principles, incorporating both advection and diffusion to model ocean spatiotemporal dynamics. Through variational optimization, we recover a latent velocity field that explicitly governs the temporal dynamics of SST. Building upon ODE, we introduce an Energy Exchanges Integrator (EEI)-inspired by ocean heat budget equations-to account for external forcing factors. Thus, the variations in the components of these factors provide deeper insights into SST dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SSTODE achieves state-of-the-art performances in global and regional SST forecasting benchmarks. Furthermore, SSTODE visually reveals the impact of advection dynamics, thermal diffusion patterns, and diurnal heating-cooling cycles on SST evolution. These findings demonstrate the model's interpretability and physical consistency.

海温预测神经微分方程物理信息模型

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