arXiv:2511.06208cs.LGcs.AI2025-11AAAI被引 1

用超图网络预测供应链韧性,提前发现风险。

Resilience Inference for Supply Chains with Hypergraph Neural Network

  • 基于超图建模企业-产品多主体交互关系
  • 仅用拓扑结构和库存数据,准确预测韧性
  • 适合做供应链风险预警与系统设计

供应链是全球经济稳定的关键,但中断可能通过互联网络迅速蔓延,造成重大经济损失。准确及时地推断供应链韧性——即在中断中维持核心功能的能力——对于主动风险防控和鲁棒网络设计至关重要。然而,现有方法缺乏无需显式系统动力学方程即可推断韧性的有效机制,也难以表征供应链网络中固有的高阶、多主体依赖关系。为此,我们提出新问题:供应链韧性推断(SCRI),即仅利用超图拓扑结构和观测到的库存轨迹,预测供应链韧性。为此,我们提出一种新型超图神经网络模型SC-RIHN,采用集合编码与超图消息传递,捕捉多方企业-产品的交互。大量实验表明,SC-RIHN在合成基准上显著优于传统MLP、代表性图神经网络及ResInf基线,凸显其在复杂供应链系统中进行早期风险预警的应用潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Supply chains are integral to global economic stability, yet disruptions can swiftly propagate through interconnected networks, resulting in substantial economic impacts. Accurate and timely inference of supply chain resilience the capability to maintain core functions during disruptions is crucial for proactive risk mitigation and robust network design. However, existing approaches lack effective mechanisms to infer supply chain resilience without explicit system dynamics and struggle to represent the higher-order, multi-entity dependencies inherent in supply chain networks. These limitations motivate the definition of a novel problem and the development of targeted modeling solutions. To address these challenges, we formalize a novel problem: Supply Chain Resilience Inference (SCRI), defined as predicting supply chain resilience using hypergraph topology and observed inventory trajectories without explicit dynamic equations. To solve this problem, we propose the Supply Chain Resilience Inference Hypergraph Network (SC-RIHN), a novel hypergraph-based model leveraging set-based encoding and hypergraph message passing to capture multi-party firm-product interactions. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that SC-RIHN significantly outperforms traditional MLP, representative graph neural network variants, and ResInf baselines across synthetic benchmarks, underscoring its potential for practical, early-warning risk assessment in complex supply chain systems.

供应链超图网络韧性预测风险预警

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