用可验证架构防止AI误发现,确保实验结果真实可靠。
Structural Enforcement of Statistical Rigor in AI-Driven Discovery: A Functional Architecture
- 构建研究态(monad)强制每次检验都更新误差预算
- 仿真中错误发现率控制在1%(目标5%),传统方法达41%
- 代码无法访问保留数据,适合高可信科研场景
AI-Scientist系统可能因无控多重检验而产生虚假发现。本文提出一种功能架构,在两个层面保障统计严谨性:一是基于Haskell的领域专用语言(研究态),使未更新误差预算就无法测试假设成为不可能;二是由操作系统级沙箱支持的声明式框架,确保验证数据在LLM生成代码运行环境中物理不可见。设计基于Lean~4对LORD++在线错误发现率(FDR)控制的机器可查形式化:推导其误差预算并证明边际与完整FDR控制,再通过SPARK/Ada验证预算财富不变性在IEEE~754浮点运算下的成立。据我们所知,这是首个从定理到浮点实现的在线FDR程序可验证链。仿真显示,该架构将错误发现率稳定在1%(目标5%),而朴素方法达41%。端到端案例研究中,有效测试避免了虚假发现,仍能捕捉真实效应。对抗评估证实,即使给出数据路径,生成代码也无法读取保留数据。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
AI-Scientist systems risk manufacturing spurious discoveries through uncontrolled multiple testing. We present a functional architecture that enforces statistical rigor at two levels: a Haskell embedded domain-specific language (the Research monad) that makes it impossible to test a hypothesis without updating the error budget, and a declarative scaffold, backed by an OS-level sandbox, that makes validation data physically absent from the environment in which LLM-generated code runs. We ground the design in a machine-checked Lean~4 formalization of LORD++ online false-discovery-rate (FDR) control: we derive its error budget and prove both marginal and full FDR control, then close the gap to the implementation by verifying the budget's wealth invariant over IEEE~754 arithmetic in SPARK/Ada. To our knowledge this is the first verified chain from theorem to floating-point implementation for an online FDR procedure. In simulation, the architecture holds the false discovery rate near 1\% against a 5\% target, where a naive approach reaches 41\%. In end-to-end case studies, a valid test avoids the false discoveries a flawed one produces, yet still finds real effects when the data allow. An adversarial evaluation confirms that generated code cannot read the held-out data even when given its exact path.
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