提出通过不确定性收缩检测大模型生成的时间序列,有效区分真实与合成数据。
A Theoretical Analysis of Detecting Large Model-Generated Time Series
- 基于递归预测中不确定性逐步缩小的分布差异,构建理论假设。
- 在32个数据集上验证,新方法显著优于现有最先进基线。
- 适合关注生成内容安全、数据真实性验证的研究者使用。
针对大模型生成时间序列带来的数据滥用与伪造风险,本文研究如何识别由时间序列大模型(TSLMs)生成的合成时间序列。现有文本生成检测方法因模态差异不适用于时间序列,因其信息密度较低且概率分布更平滑,导致基于分词的检测器判别力不足。本文揭示真实与生成时间序列在递归预测下的细微分布差异,提出「不确定性收缩假说」:模型生成序列在递归预测中不确定性逐步降低。在合理假设下,理论上证明生成序列分布趋于集中。通过多数据集实证验证该假说。基于此,提出白盒检测器不确定性收缩估计器(UCE),通过聚合连续前缀的不确定性度量识别生成序列。32个数据集上的实验表明,UCE持续超越现有最佳基线,提供可靠且通用的检测方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Motivated by the increasing risks of data misuse and fabrication, we investigate the problem of identifying synthetic time series generated by Time-Series Large Models (TSLMs) in this work. While there are extensive researches on detecting model generated text, we find that these existing methods are not applicable to time series data due to the fundamental modality difference, as time series usually have lower information density and smoother probability distributions than text data, which limit the discriminative power of token-based detectors. To address this issue, we examine the subtle distributional differences between real and model-generated time series and propose the contraction hypothesis, which states that model-generated time series, unlike real ones, exhibit progressively decreasing uncertainty under recursive forecasting. We formally prove this hypothesis under theoretical assumptions on model behavior and time series structure. Model-generated time series exhibit progressively concentrated distributions under recursive forecasting, leading to uncertainty contraction. We provide empirical validation of the hypothesis across diverse datasets. Building on this insight, we introduce the Uncertainty Contraction Estimator (UCE), a white-box detector that aggregates uncertainty metrics over successive prefixes to identify TSLM-generated time series. Extensive experiments on 32 datasets show that UCE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, offering a reliable and generalizable solution for detecting model-generated time series.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。