用超网络动态生成模型参数,提升多变量时间序列预测精度与泛化能力。
HN-MVTS: HyperNetwork-based Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
- 通过可学习嵌入矩阵控制超网络生成目标模型最后一层权重
- 在8个基准数据集上显著提升DLinear、PatchTST等模型性能
- 训练时引入超网络,推理零开销,适合现有模型快速增强
多变量时间序列精准预测仍是重大挑战,尤其在现实场景中时序依赖日益复杂。尽管神经网络模型已取得显著进展,但复杂的通道相关模型常因容量过大导致性能下降,而通道无关模型虽鲁棒性高但表现受限。本文提出HN-MVTS,将基于超网络的生成先验与任意神经网络预测模型结合。超网络输入为时间序列分量的可学习嵌入矩阵,仅生成目标模型最后一层权重,作为数据自适应正则项,提升泛化能力与长程预测准确率。超网络仅在训练阶段使用,不增加推理延迟。在8个基准数据集上的大量实验表明,将HN-MVTS应用于SOTA模型(DLinear、PatchTST、TSMixer等)均能显著提升性能。结果表明,超网络驱动的参数化为复杂场景下的预测技术改进提供了新方向。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data remains a formidable challenge, particularly due to the growing complexity of temporal dependencies in real-world scenarios. While neural network-based models have achieved notable success in this domain, complex channel-dependent models often suffer from performance degradation compared to channel-independent models that do not consider the relationship between components but provide high robustness due to small capacity. In this work, we propose HN-MVTS, a novel architecture that integrates a hypernetwork-based generative prior with an arbitrary neural network forecasting model. The input of this hypernetwork is a learnable embedding matrix of time series components. To restrict the number of new parameters, the hypernetwork learns to generate the weights of the last layer of the target forecasting networks, serving as a data-adaptive regularizer that improves generalization and long-range predictive accuracy. The hypernetwork is used only during the training, so it does not increase the inference time compared to the base forecasting model. Extensive experiments on eight benchmark datasets demonstrate that application of HN-MVTS to the state-of-the-art models (DLinear, PatchTST, TSMixer, etc.) typically improves their performance. Our findings suggest that hypernetwork-driven parameterization offers a promising direction for enhancing existing forecasting techniques in complex scenarios.
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