arXiv:2511.08622q-fin.STcs.AI2025-11KDD被引 18

提出多周期学习框架,提升金融时序预测精度与效率

Multi-period Learning for Financial Time Series Forecasting

  • 设计三种模块融合多周期输入信息
  • 在多个金融数据集上提升预测准确率
  • 适合关注长短期市场趋势的量化研究者

时间序列预测在金融领域至关重要。金融时间序列受短期公众情绪与中长期政策及市场趋势共同影响,因此处理多周期输入对精准预测极为关键。现有模型或仅使用单周期输入,或缺乏针对多周期特性的专门设计。本文提出多周期学习框架(MLF),兼顾预测精度与效率。设计三个新模块:(i) 周期间冗余过滤(IRF),消除周期间信息冗余以优化自注意力建模;(ii) 可学习加权平均集成(LWI),有效融合多周期预测结果;(iii) 多周期自适应分块(MAP),通过统一各周期分块数量缓解周期偏倚。此外,提出分块压缩模块(Patch Squeeze),减少自注意力中的分块数量以提升效率。MLF可整合不同长度的多周期输入,在提升预测性能的同时降低训练时输入长度选择成本。代码与数据集已公开于 https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/MLF。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting is important in finance domain. Financial time series (TS) patterns are influenced by both short-term public opinions and medium-/long-term policy and market trends. Hence, processing multi-period inputs becomes crucial for accurate financial time series forecasting (TSF). However, current TSF models either use only single-period input, or lack customized designs for addressing multi-period characteristics. In this paper, we propose a Multi-period Learning Framework (MLF) to enhance financial TSF performance. MLF considers both TSF's accuracy and efficiency requirements. Specifically, we design three new modules to better integrate the multi-period inputs for improving accuracy: (i) Inter-period Redundancy Filtering (IRF), that removes the information redundancy between periods for accurate self-attention modeling, (ii) Learnable Weighted-average Integration (LWI), that effectively integrates multi-period forecasts, (iii) Multi-period self-Adaptive Patching (MAP), that mitigates the bias towards certain periods by setting the same number of patches across all periods. Furthermore, we propose a Patch Squeeze module to reduce the number of patches in self-attention modeling for maximized efficiency. MLF incorporates multiple inputs with varying lengths (periods) to achieve better accuracy and reduces the costs of selecting input lengths during training. The codes and datasets are available at https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/MLF.

时序预测多周期金融建模自注意力

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