用注意力机制和高斯过程预测积雪水量,同时给出可信度评估。
ForeSWE: Forecasting Snow-Water Equivalent with an Uncertainty-Aware Attention Model
- 结合注意力机制捕捉时空特征,用高斯过程量化不确定性。
- 在512个站点数据上,预测准确率和区间覆盖均优于现有方法。
- 适合需要可靠水文预测的水资源管理决策者使用。
在以积雪为主的流域中,雪水当量(SWE)是估算雪层含水量的关键指标,广泛用于水资源管理决策。然而,由于地形与多种环境因素影响,SWE具有显著的时空变异性,传统预测方法未能有效利用时空相关性,且缺乏不确定性估计,限制了其应用价值。本文提出ForeSWE,一种融合深度学习与经典概率方法的新型概率时空预测模型。该模型采用注意力机制整合时空特征与交互关系,并引入高斯过程模块实现预测不确定性的合理量化。在西美512个雪监测站(SNOTEL)的数据上进行评估,结果表明,该模型在预测精度和预测区间覆盖方面均显著优于现有方法。同时,实验揭示了不同方法在不确定性估计上的差异。研究成果为水资源管理机构提供了可部署、可反馈的预测平台。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Various complex water management decisions are made in snow-dominant watersheds with the knowledge of Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE) -- a key measure widely used to estimate the water content of a snowpack. However, forecasting SWE is challenging because SWE is influenced by various factors including topography and an array of environmental conditions, and has therefore been observed to be spatio-temporally variable. Classical approaches to SWE forecasting have not adequately utilized these spatial/temporal correlations, nor do they provide uncertainty estimates -- which can be of significant value to the decision maker. In this paper, we present ForeSWE, a new probabilistic spatio-temporal forecasting model that integrates deep learning and classical probabilistic techniques. The resulting model features a combination of an attention mechanism to integrate spatiotemporal features and interactions, alongside a Gaussian process module that provides principled quantification of prediction uncertainty. We evaluate the model on data from 512 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the Western US. The results show significant improvements in both forecasting accuracy and prediction interval compared to existing approaches. The results also serve to highlight the efficacy in uncertainty estimates between different approaches. Collectively, these findings have provided a platform for deployment and feedback by the water management community.
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