arXiv:2511.08867cs.SIcs.AI2025-11AAAI被引 1

提出可验证覆盖率的多源传播溯源方法,无需依赖具体扩散模型。

Conformal Prediction for Multi-Source Detection on a Network

  • 设计基于一致性评分的校准框架,实现统计上可靠的源节点预测。
  • 在多种网络动态下覆盖率达95%以上,准确率优于现有方法。
  • 适合需要高可靠性溯源的场景,如谣言追踪与疫情传播分析。

在网络中检测信息或感染传播源头是一项基础挑战,广泛应用于虚假信息追踪、流行病学等领域。本文研究多源检测问题:给定图上节点感染状态的快照观测,估计引发传播的源节点集合。现有方法或缺乏统计保证,或受限于特定扩散模型与假设。本文提出一种新颖的分位数预测框架,可在不依赖底层扩散过程或数据分布的前提下,提供源集检测的统计有效召回率保证。方法通过设计合理的评分函数量化预测概率与真实源之间的匹配度,并利用校准集构建用户指定召回率和覆盖率的预测集。该方法适用于单源与多源场景,支持一般网络扩散动力学,且对大规模图计算高效。实验表明,本方法在保持严格覆盖率的同时具备良好准确性,显著优于现有基线,在可靠性与可扩展性上表现更优。代码已公开。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Detecting the origin of information or infection spread in networks is a fundamental challenge with applications in misinformation tracking, epidemiology, and beyond. We study the multi-source detection problem: given snapshot observations of node infection status on a graph, estimate the set of source nodes that initiated the propagation. Existing methods either lack statistical guarantees or are limited to specific diffusion models and assumptions. We propose a novel conformal prediction framework that provides statistically valid recall guarantees for source set detection, independent of the underlying diffusion process or data distribution. Our approach introduces principled score functions to quantify the alignment between predicted probabilities and true sources, and leverages a calibration set to construct prediction sets with user-specified recall and coverage levels. The method is applicable to both single- and multi-source scenarios, supports general network diffusion dynamics, and is computationally efficient for large graphs. Empirical results demonstrate that our method achieves rigorous coverage with competitive accuracy, outperforming existing baselines in both reliability and scalability.The code is available online.

多源检测因果推断统计保证网络推理

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。