arXiv:2511.09275cs.AI2025-11被引 2

将交通数据分解为周期与残差部分,提升预测精度与鲁棒性。

HyperD: Hybrid Periodicity Decoupling Framework for Traffic Forecasting

  • 分两路建模:周期部分用可学习周期嵌入+时空注意力,残差部分用复数域MLP捕捉高频波动。
  • 在4个真实数据集上均超越现有方法,且对突发干扰更鲁棒,计算效率更高。
  • 适合需要高精度、抗干扰交通预测的智能交通系统开发者。

准确的交通预测在智能交通系统中至关重要,可用于拥堵控制、路径规划和城市出行优化。然而,由于两大挑战:(1)路网中路段与传感器间的动态交互导致复杂的空间依赖性;(2)多尺度周期模式(如日周期和周周期)与由事故、天气或施工等不可预测事件引起的非周期波动共存。为此,我们提出HyperD(混合周期解耦框架),将交通数据分解为周期与残差成分。周期成分由混合周期表示模块处理,通过可学习周期嵌入和时空注意力提取细粒度的日/周模式;残差成分则由频域感知残差表示模块建模,采用复数域MLP捕捉非周期性高频波动。为强化两成分的语义分离,引入双视图对齐损失,将低频信息对齐至周期分支,高频信息对齐至残差分支。在四个真实世界交通数据集上的大量实验表明,HyperD达到当前最优预测精度,同时在扰动下表现更鲁棒,且相比现有方法计算效率更高。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate traffic forecasting plays a vital role in intelligent transportation systems, enabling applications such as congestion control, route planning, and urban mobility optimization. However, traffic forecasting remains challenging due to two key factors: (1) complex spatial dependencies arising from dynamic interactions between road segments and traffic sensors across the network, and (2) the coexistence of multi-scale periodic patterns (e.g., daily and weekly periodic patterns driven by human routines) with irregular fluctuations caused by unpredictable events (e.g., accidents, weather, or construction). To tackle these challenges, we propose HyperD (Hybrid Periodic Decoupling), a novel framework that decouples traffic data into periodic and residual components. The periodic component is handled by the Hybrid Periodic Representation Module, which extracts fine-grained daily and weekly patterns using learnable periodic embeddings and spatial-temporal attention. The residual component, which captures non-periodic, high-frequency fluctuations, is modeled by the Frequency-Aware Residual Representation Module, leveraging complex-valued MLP in frequency domain. To enforce semantic separation between the two components, we further introduce a Dual-View Alignment Loss, which aligns low-frequency information with the periodic branch and high-frequency information with the residual branch. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that HyperD achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy, while offering superior robustness under disturbances and improved computational efficiency compared to existing methods.

交通预测周期解耦时空建模深度学习

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