arXiv:2511.09789cs.LG2025-11

提出趋势感知多任务框架,提升短期能源预测的方向准确性。

Trend-Aware Multi-Task Learning for Short-Term Energy Forecasting

  • 将预测分解为方向变化与偏差大小,分别建模以捕捉趋势
  • 在真实数据集上实现数值精度相当,方向预测性能显著提升
  • 自动加权机制降低调参成本,适合电力市场等实际场景

短期能源预测在实时运行决策中至关重要,如电力市场竞价与调度,既需数值准确,也需正确方向信号。现有方法多为纯回归任务,难以显式捕捉步进式方向变动与趋势一致性。本文提出一种趋势感知的多任务预测框架,将输出分解为相对于最新观测的方向变动和偏差幅度,实现精准数值预测与可解释的趋势感知输出。采用特定任务双流架构,探索趋势与偏差信息融合的关键设计,包括硬/概率趋势表示、对称/非对称偏差建模、并行/串行条件策略。引入不确定性感知的任务加权机制,自动平衡方向分类、偏差回归与最终输出预测,稳定多任务学习并减少人工调参。在真实能源数据集上的实验表明,该框架在数值精度上达到先进水平,同时显著提升方向预测表现,计算开销适中。该能力在短期能源系统管理中尤为关键,可为市场竞价、资源调度与风险敏感型能源管理提供更可靠的决策支持。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Short-term energy forecasting plays an important role in real-time operational decision-making, such as electricity market bidding and power system dispatch, where both numerical accuracy and correct directional signals are essential. However, most existing forecasting approaches formulate the problem purely as a regression task, limiting their ability to explicitly capture stepwise directional movements and trend consistency required for operational decisions. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a trend-aware multi-task forecasting framework that decomposes forecasting outputs into directional movements and deviation magnitudes relative to the latest observation, enabling both accurate numerical prediction and interpretable trend-aware outputs. The framework adopts a task-specific dual-stream architecture and explores key design choices for integrating trend and deviation information, including hard versus probabilistic trend representations, symmetric versus asymmetric deviation modelling, and parallel versus sequential conditioning strategies. To stabilize multi-task learning and reduce manual tuning, an uncertainty-aware task weighting scheme is incorporated to automatically balance directional classification, deviation regression, and final output prediction during training. Experimental results on real-world energy datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves competitive numerical accuracy compared with state-of-the-art algorithms, while consistently improving trend prediction performance with moderate computational cost. This capability is particularly beneficial in short-term energy system management, where consistent directional forecasting can provide more reliable decision support for practical operational scenarios such as market bidding, resource scheduling, and risk-aware energy management.

能源预测多任务学习趋势感知电力系统

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