arXiv:2511.10130cs.LG2025-11AAAI被引 1

提出新型损失函数RI-Loss,提升时间序列预测对噪声的鲁棒性。

RI-Loss: A Learnable Residual-Informed Loss for Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:RI-Loss: A Learnable Residual-Informed Loss for Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于HSIC构建残差与随机时间序列的依赖关系,显式建模噪声结构。
  • 理论证明非渐近HSIC界,实现最优收敛率并量化核空间交互。
  • 在8个真实数据集上验证,5种模型预测性能均显著提升。

时间序列预测依赖于从历史数据中预测未来值,但当前主流方法(包括Transformer和多层感知机模型)通常使用均方误差(MSE)进行优化,存在两个根本缺陷:逐点误差计算无法捕捉时间相关性,且未考虑数据中的固有噪声。为克服这些局限,本文提出残差感知损失(RI-Loss),基于希尔伯特-施密特独立性准则(HSIC)。RI-Loss通过强制残差序列与随机时间序列之间的依赖关系,显式建模噪声结构,从而生成更鲁棒、噪声感知的表示。理论上,我们首次推导出带有显式双样本复杂度项的非渐近HSIC界,利用Bernstein型集中不等式与Rademacher复杂度分析,实现了最优收敛速率,并精确量化了核空间的交互。实证方面,在八个真实世界基准数据集及五种领先预测模型上进行了实验,结果表明该方法显著提升了预测性能。代码已公开:https://github.com/shang-xl/RI-Loss。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting relies on predicting future values from historical data, yet most state-of-the-art approaches-including transformer and multilayer perceptron-based models-optimize using Mean Squared Error (MSE), which has two fundamental weaknesses: its point-wise error computation fails to capture temporal relationships, and it does not account for inherent noise in the data. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Residual-Informed Loss (RI-Loss), a novel objective function based on the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC). RI-Loss explicitly models noise structure by enforcing dependence between the residual sequence and a random time series, enabling more robust, noise-aware representations. Theoretically, we derive the first non-asymptotic HSIC bound with explicit double-sample complexity terms, achieving optimal convergence rates through Bernstein-type concentration inequalities and Rademacher complexity analysis. This provides rigorous guarantees for RI-Loss optimization while precisely quantifying kernel space interactions. Empirically, experiments across eight real-world benchmarks and five leading forecasting models demonstrate improvements in predictive performance, validating the effectiveness of our approach. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/shang-xl/RI-Loss.

时间序列损失函数噪声建模深度学习

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