通过速度关系约束提升长期股市预测的稳定性。
Weak Relation Enforcement for Kinematic-Informed Long-Term Stock Prediction with Artificial Neural Networks
- 在神经网络中引入速度关系损失,约束时间序列点间的动态关系。
- 在道琼斯15年数据上显著改善了分布外数据下的预测性能。
- 适合关注长时序建模与鲁棒性提升的量化研究者。
我们提出在动力学感知人工神经网络(KINN)中,通过弱化速度关系损失来改进长期股票预测。针对序列波动性、分布外(OOD)测试数据及训练数据中的异常值问题,该方法不仅学习未来点的预测,还学习点之间的速度关系,避免产生不合理的虚假预测。所提损失函数不仅惩罚预测值与标签的误差,还惩罚下一时刻预测值与前一时刻加速度预测值之间的偏差。该损失函数在多个主流和非主流自回归神经网络架构上进行了测试,在长达十五年的道琼斯指数数据上,对易受归一化影响且在分布外条件下易出现虚假行为的激活函数,均表现出统计上显著的性能提升。结果表明,该架构通过弱化地保持数据邻域关系,有效缓解了自回归模型在变换过程中破坏数据拓扑结构的问题。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We propose loss function week enforcement of the velocity relations between time-series points in the Kinematic-Informed artificial Neural Networks (KINN) for long-term stock prediction. Problems of the series volatility, Out-of-Distribution (OOD) test data, and outliers in training data are addressed by (Artificial Neural Networks) ANN's learning not only future points prediction but also by learning velocity relations between the points, such a way as avoiding unrealistic spurious predictions. The presented loss function penalizes not only errors between predictions and supervised label data, but also errors between the next point prediction and the previous point plus velocity prediction. The loss function is tested on the multiple popular and exotic AR ANN architectures, and around fifteen years of Dow Jones function demonstrated statistically meaningful improvement across the normalization-sensitive activation functions prone to spurious behaviour in the OOD data conditions. Results show that such architecture addresses the issue of the normalization in the auto-regressive models that break the data topology by weakly enforcing the data neighbourhood proximity (relation) preservation during the ANN transformation.
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