解决交互式多智能体系统中的预测不确定性问题,提升安全性和成功率。
Who Moved My Distribution? Conformal Prediction for Interactive Multi-Agent Systems
- 提出迭代式置信预测框架,动态适应自身行为引发的分布变化。
- 仿真中碰撞避免效果显著,成功率最高提升9.6%。
- 适合需要安全决策的自动驾驶、机器人协同等场景。
不确定性感知的预测对安全运动规划至关重要,尤其在使用学习模型预测周围智能体行为时。置信预测是一种常用于生成机器学习模型不确定性预测区间的统计工具。现有大多数基于置信预测的框架假设周围智能体为非交互式,但实际中,当不确定性感知的主智能体调整行为以应对预测不确定性时,周围智能体会响应这一变化,导致分布偏移,称为内生分布偏移。为此,本文提出一种迭代置信预测框架,系统性地将不确定性感知的主智能体控制器适应于该内生分布偏移。所提方法在适应反应型非主智能体行为演变的同时,提供概率安全性保证。我们建立了内生分布偏移的模型,并给出了迭代置信预测流程在该偏移下收敛的条件。在2-和3智能体交互场景的仿真中验证了该框架,实现了无碰撞且不过度保守的行为,相较其他基于置信预测的基线,成功率最高提升9.6%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Uncertainty-aware prediction is essential for safe motion planning, especially when using learned models to forecast the behavior of surrounding agents. Conformal prediction is a statistical tool often used to produce uncertainty-aware prediction regions for machine learning models. Most existing frameworks utilizing conformal prediction-based uncertainty predictions assume that the surrounding agents are non-interactive. This is because in closed-loop, as uncertainty-aware agents change their behavior to account for prediction uncertainty, the surrounding agents respond to this change, leading to a distribution shift which we call endogenous distribution shift. To address this challenge, we introduce an iterative conformal prediction framework that systematically adapts the uncertainty-aware ego-agent controller to the endogenous distribution shift. The proposed method provides probabilistic safety guarantees while adapting to the evolving behavior of reactive, non-ego agents. We establish a model for the endogenous distribution shift and provide the conditions for the iterative conformal prediction pipeline to converge under such a distribution shift. We validate our framework in simulation for 2- and 3- agent interaction scenarios, demonstrating collision avoidance without resulting in overly conservative behavior and an overall improvement in success rates of up to 9.6% compared to other conformal prediction-based baselines.
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