将领域知识与数据驱动结合,显著提升核电设备故障预测能力。
Enhancing failure prediction in nuclear industry: Hybridization of knowledge- and data-driven techniques
- 融合核电领域知识与数据模型,构建混合预测方法。
- 预测时长从3小时延长至24小时,F1得分由56.36%提升至93.12%。
- 适合关注工业安全与高可靠性预测的工程师与研究人员。
物联网(IoT)与工业4.0的融合推动了核能行业中数据驱动方法的发展,显著提升了安全性与经济效率。然而,核系统复杂性要求方法具备深厚的领域知识,以精准预测设备维护需求,从而降低停机时间和运营成本。本文提出一种新型预测性维护方法,将数据驱动技术与核电设备的领域知识相结合。该研究在方法层面揭示了纯数据驱动方法的局限性,并证明领域知识可显著提升预测模型性能;在应用层面,首次在高度敏感且受限制的核工业中实现该方法。通过真实案例对比分析,结果显示:纯数据驱动方法仅能实现3小时预测窗口,F1得分为56.36%;而本方法将预测窗口扩展至24小时,F1得分达93.12%,显著优于现有方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The convergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Industry 4.0 has significantly enhanced data-driven methodologies within the nuclear industry, notably enhancing safety and economic efficiency. This advancement challenges the precise prediction of future maintenance needs for assets, which is crucial for reducing downtime and operational costs. However, the effectiveness of data-driven methodologies in the nuclear sector requires extensive domain knowledge due to the complexity of the systems involved. Thus, this paper proposes a novel predictive maintenance methodology that combines data-driven techniques with domain knowledge from a nuclear equipment. The methodological originality of this paper is located on two levels: highlighting the limitations of purely data-driven approaches and demonstrating the importance of knowledge in enhancing the performance of the predictive models. The applicative novelty of this work lies in its use within a domain such as a nuclear industry, which is highly restricted and ultrasensitive due to security, economic and environmental concerns. A detailed real-world case study which compares the current state of equipment monitoring with two scenarios, demonstrate that the methodology significantly outperforms purely data-driven methods in failure prediction. While purely data-driven methods achieve only a modest performance with a prediction horizon limited to 3 h and a F1 score of 56.36%, the hybrid approach increases the prediction horizon to 24 h and achieves a higher F1 score of 93.12%.
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