用物理先验约束特征分布,提升台风多任务估计的泛化能力
IDOL: Meeting Diverse Distribution Shifts with Prior Physics for Tropical Cyclone Multi-Task Estimation
- 基于风场模型和暗相关知识构建共享与专用身份令牌
- 在多个数据集上实现风速、气压等指标的稳定估计
- 适合关注气象建模与分布外泛化的研究人员
热带气旋(TC)估计旨在实时准确预测多种属性。然而,环境场复杂动态导致的分布偏移(如地理差异与季节变化)严重挑战了估计可靠性。现有方法依赖多模态融合提取特征,却忽视特征表示的内在分布,导致分布外(OOD)场景下泛化性能差。为此,本文提出身份分布导向的物理不变学习框架IDOL,利用先验物理知识施加身份导向约束,以物理不变性应对分布变异。具体地,通过风场模型与台风暗相关知识建模任务共享与专用的身份令牌,捕捉任务依赖关系与台风内在物理不变性,实现对风速、气压、内核及外核尺寸等属性在分布偏移下的鲁棒估计。在多个数据集与任务上的实验表明,IDOL显著优于现有方法,验证了基于先验物理知识施加身份约束可有效缓解多样分布偏移。代码已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Tropical Cyclone (TC) estimation aims to accurately estimate various TC attributes in real time. However, distribution shifts arising from the complex and dynamic nature of TC environmental fields, such as varying geographical conditions and seasonal changes, present significant challenges to reliable estimation. Most existing methods rely on multi-modal fusion for feature extraction but overlook the intrinsic distribution of feature representations, leading to poor generalization under out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this, we propose an effective Identity Distribution-Oriented Physical Invariant Learning framework (IDOL), which imposes identity-oriented constraints to regulate the feature space under the guidance of prior physical knowledge, thereby dealing distribution variability with physical invariance. Specifically, the proposed IDOL employs the wind field model and dark correlation knowledge of TC to model task-shared and task-specific identity tokens. These tokens capture task dependencies and intrinsic physical invariances of TC, enabling robust estimation of TC wind speed, pressure, inner-core, and outer-core size under distribution shifts. Extensive experiments conducted on multiple datasets and tasks demonstrate the outperformance of the proposed IDOL, verifying that imposing identity-oriented constraints based on prior physical knowledge can effectively mitigates diverse distribution shifts in TC estimation.Code is available at https://github.com/Zjut-MultimediaPlus/IDOL.
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