通过多层反事实解释,量化特征对模型预测的影响频率,让决策更透明可干预。
FLEX: Feature Importance from Layered Counterfactual Explanations
- 将多个反事实样本的特征变化频次,按局部、区域和全局层级统计
- 在交通事故与贷款审批任务中,发现全局排名与SHAP一致,且揭示更多关键特征
- 支持不同约束(如稀疏性、可行性)的解释生成,适合高风险场景决策分析
机器学习模型在各领域表现优异,但缺乏可解释性限制了其在高风险场景的安全应用。反事实解释常用于提供可操作的“如果…会怎样”建议,但通常仅针对个别样本,无法量化特征在特征空间特定区域或整个数据集中的系统性影响。我们提出FLEX(基于分层反事实解释的特征重要性),一种模型与领域无关的框架,将反事实集合转换为局部、区域和全局层面的特征变化频率得分。FLEX通过跨样本和邻域聚合,扩展了局部变化频率度量,提供反映特征需改变以反转预测的频率排名。该框架兼容多种反事实生成方法,可强调稀疏性、可行性或可操作性等特性,从而根据实际约束定制特征重要性。我们在两个差异较大的表格任务上评估:交通事故严重性预测和贷款审批。结果表明:(i) FLEX的全局排名与SHAP相关,同时揭示额外驱动因素;(ii) 区域分析识别出全局汇总遗漏的上下文相关因素。FLEX弥合了局部可归因与全局可解释性之间的差距,支持风险敏感应用中的透明与干预导向决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning models achieve state-of-the-art performance across domains, yet their lack of interpretability limits safe deployment in high-stakes settings. Counterfactual explanations are widely used to provide actionable "what-if" recourse, but they typically remain instance-specific and do not quantify which features systematically drive outcome changes within coherent regions of the feature space or across an entire dataset. We introduce FLEX (Feature importance from Layered counterfactual EXplanations), a model- and domain-agnostic framework that converts sets of counterfactuals into feature change frequency scores at local, regional, and global levels. FLEX generalises local change-frequency measures by aggregating across instances and neighbourhoods, offering interpretable rankings that reflect how often each feature must change to flip predictions. The framework is compatible with different counterfactual generation methods, allowing users to emphasise characteristics such as sparsity, feasibility, or actionability, thereby tailoring the derived feature importances to practical constraints. We evaluate FLEX on two contrasting tabular tasks: traffic accident severity prediction and loan approval, and compare FLEX to SHAP- and LIME-derived feature importance values. Results show that (i) FLEX's global rankings correlate with SHAP while surfacing additional drivers, and (ii) regional analyses reveal context-specific factors that global summaries miss. FLEX thus bridges the gap between local recourse and global attribution, supporting transparent and intervention-oriented decision-making in risk-sensitive applications.
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