arXiv:2511.13018cs.LG2025-11

揭示图神经网络因果推断中最终阶段的性能瓶颈及其机制。

The Final-Stage Bottleneck: A Systematic Dissection of the R-Learner for Network Causal Inference

  • 发现最终阶段估计器的归纳偏置是性能关键,远超扰动模型选择。
  • 证明无图感知的最终阶段会导致完全失效(MSE > 4.0)。
  • 提出端到端图R-learner,解决瓶颈问题并优于基线方法。

R-Learner是一种理论严谨、对扰动模型误差鲁棒的异质处理效应估计框架。然而,在图结构数据中,因果异质性常依赖图结构,这挑战了其对最终阶段模型良好设定的核心假设。本文通过大规模实证研究系统剖析了图上的R-Learner框架。首次提供严格证据表明,性能主要由最终阶段CATE估计器的归纳偏置驱动,远超扰动模型选择的影响。核心发现是量化出灾难性的“表示瓶颈”:在统计显著性水平p < 0.001下,即使使用强大的GNN扰动模型,缺乏图感知的最终阶段仍导致完全失败(MSE > 4.0)。相反,本文提出的端到端图R-Learner成功实现并显著优于强基线非DML GNN T-Learner。此外,我们识别并解释了微妙的拓扑相关“扰动瓶颈”,通过针对性的“中心-边缘权衡”分析将其与GNN过挤压现象关联。研究结果在多种合成与半合成基准上验证。代码已开源,以促进未来对该关键“最终阶段瓶颈”的研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The R-Learner is a powerful, theoretically-grounded framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, prized for its robustness to nuisance model errors. However, its application to network data, where causal heterogeneity is often graph-dependent, presents a critical challenge to its core assumption of a well-specified final-stage model. In this paper, we conduct a large-scale empirical study to systematically dissect the R-Learner framework on graphs. We provide the first rigorous evidence that the primary driver of performance is the inductive bias of the final-stage CATE estimator, an effect that dominates the choice of nuisance models. Our central finding is the quantification of a catastrophic "representation bottleneck": we prove with overwhelming statistical significance (p < 0.001) that R-Learners with a graph-blind final stage fail completely (MSE > 4.0), even when paired with powerful GNN nuisance models. Conversely, our proposed end-to-end Graph R-Learner succeeds and significantly outperforms a strong, non-DML GNN T-Learner baseline. Furthermore, we identify and provide a mechanistic explanation for a subtle, topology-dependent "nuisance bottleneck," linking it to GNN over-squashing via a targeted "Hub-Periphery Trade-off" analysis. Our findings are validated across diverse synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks. We release our code as a reproducible benchmark to facilitate future research on this critical "final-stage bottleneck."

因果推断图神经网络异质效应表示瓶颈

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