arXiv:2511.13756cs.LGcs.AI2025-11

用深度格网网络实现非参数化概率预测,避免分位数交叉问题。

Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting of non-parametric CDFs with Deep Lattice Networks

  • 基于深度格网网络构建单调约束的多时程分位数回归
  • 在太阳能辐照度预测中表现优于或等同于无约束模型
  • 适合需要可靠概率输出的能源与金融领域应用

概率预测不仅能提供未来更多维度的信息,还能弥补点预测的不足。时间序列中的突变仍可通过累积分布函数(CDF)捕捉,而点预测往往无法察觉。传统上对CDF建模依赖参数方法,但随着技术进步,非参数化建模已成可能。本文提出一种新方法,利用深度格网网络(DLN)实现隐式、完整且非参数化的多时程概率预测。通过引入长短期记忆单元(LSTM)作为嵌入层,并将分位数输入扩展至所有子格网,结合DLN固有的单调性约束,有效防止分位数交叉,从而生成合法的CDF。在日间、逐小时太阳能辐照度预测任务中,实验表明该方法性能不低于甚至优于无约束模型;与可扩展的单调神经网络相比,本方法也表现更优。该工作旨在推动单调神经网络与概率预测领域的交叉研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Probabilistic forecasting is not only a way to add more information to a prediction of the future, but it also builds on weaknesses in point prediction. Sudden changes in a time series can still be captured by a cumulative distribution function (CDF), while a point prediction is likely to miss it entirely. The modeling of CDFs within forecasts has historically been limited to parametric approaches, but due to recent advances, this no longer has to be the case. We aim to advance the fields of probabilistic forecasting and monotonic networks by connecting them and propose an approach that permits the forecasting of implicit, complete, and nonparametric CDFs. For this purpose, we propose an adaptation to deep lattice networks (DLN) for monotonically constrained simultaneous/implicit quantile regression in time series forecasting. Quantile regression usually produces quantile crossovers, which need to be prevented to achieve a legitimate CDF. By leveraging long short term memory units (LSTM) as the embedding layer, and spreading quantile inputs to all sub-lattices of a DLN with an extended output size, we can produce a multi-horizon forecast of an implicit CDF due to the monotonic constraintability of DLNs that prevent quantile crossovers. We compare and evaluate our approach's performance to relevant state of the art within the context of a highly relevant application of time series forecasting: Day-ahead, hourly forecasts of solar irradiance observations. Our experiments show that the adaptation of a DLN performs just as well or even better than an unconstrained approach. Further comparison of the adapted DLN against a scalable monotonic neural network shows that our approach performs better. With this adaptation of DLNs, we intend to create more interest and crossover investigations in techniques of monotonic neural networks and probabilistic forecasting.

概率预测深度格网时间序列太阳能预测

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