AI可加速制造与材料科学中的持续创新,但需结合传统研究方法。
Can Artificial Intelligence Accelerate Technological Progress? Researchers' Perspectives on AI in Manufacturing and Materials Science
- 通过访谈32位科研人员,分析AI在材料与制造领域的实际应用。
- AI显著降低设计成本与时间,提升研发效率,但依赖已有数据覆盖的设计空间。
- 适合关注工业研发效率提升的研究者,也提醒警惕对颠覆性理论突破的潜在抑制。
人工智能(AI)被认为能大幅加快技术进步速度,但此类预期往往缺乏对创新过程中AI实际应用的深入实地研究。为填补这一空白,我们基于对32位美国高校制造与材料科学领域、具备机器学习(ML)经验的科研人员的访谈,探讨并评估了AI在创新中的作用。结果表明,AI主要应用于材料与制造过程的建模,有助于更低成本、更快速地探索材料与工艺的设计空间。其优势包括研发成本、时间和计算资源的节省。然而,当超出已有密集数据支持的设计空间时,AI/ML工具可靠性下降;其有效使用需与传统研究方法结合,并依赖专业判断;同时,有研究者担忧其可能削弱颠覆性理论进展的机会。因此,我们建议:在利用AI/ML推动持续创新方面应保持乐观;但必须继续支持传统的实证、计算和理论研究,以保障未来重大突破的可能性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Artificial intelligence (AI) raises expectations of substantial increases in rates of technological progress, but such anticipations are often not connected to detailed ground-level studies of AI use in innovation processes. Accordingly, it remains unclear how and to what extent AI can accelerate innovation. To help to fill this gap, we explore and assess results from 32 interviews with U.S.-based academic manufacturing and materials sciences researchers experienced with AI and machine learning (ML) techniques. We found that AI was primarily used for modeling of materials and manufacturing processes, facilitating cheaper and more rapid search of design spaces for materials and manufacturing processes alike. Benefits included cost, time, and computation savings in technology development. However, AI/ML tools were unreliable outside design spaces for which dense data were already available; they required skilled and judicious application in tandem with older research techniques; and concerns were raised about the potential to detrimentally circumvent opportunities for disruptive theoretical advancement. Based on these results, we suggest there is reason for optimism about acceleration in sustaining innovations through the use of AI/ML; but that support for conventional empirical, computational, and theoretical research is required to maintain the likelihood of further disruptive advances in manufacturing and materials.
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