用大模型融合交通与人流数据,提升短租市场趋势预测精度。
Enhancing Regional Airbnb Trend Forecasting Using LLM-Based Embeddings of Accessibility and Human Mobility
- 将区域可达性与人流数据转为LLM提示词,生成综合嵌入表征
- 在首尔数据上使预测误差降低约48%,优于传统模型
- 适合城市规划者用于识别房源过剩区域,支持政策制定
短租平台(如Airbnb)的扩张显著影响了本地住房市场,常导致租金上涨和住房可负担性下降。准确预测区域级Airbnb市场趋势,对政策制定者和城市规划者具有重要意义。本文提出一种新型时间序列预测框架,旨在预测三个关键指标——收入、预订天数和预订数量——在区域层面未来1至3个月的趋势。与以往聚焦单一房源固定时点的研究不同,本方法通过滑动窗口策略,整合房源特征与外部上下文因素(如城市可达性与人类移动性),构建区域表征。将结构化表格数据转化为大语言模型(LLM)的提示输入,生成全面的区域嵌入,并输入RNN、LSTM、Transformer等先进时序模型,以更好捕捉复杂的时空动态。在首尔的Airbnb数据集上实验表明,该方法相比传统统计与机器学习基线,平均RMSE和MAE均降低约48%。该框架不仅提升了预测准确性,还为识别房源供给过剩区域提供了实用洞见,支持数据驱动的城市治理决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The expansion of short-term rental platforms, such as Airbnb, has significantly disrupted local housing markets, often leading to increased rental prices and housing affordability issues. Accurately forecasting regional Airbnb market trends can thus offer critical insights for policymakers and urban planners aiming to mitigate these impacts. This study proposes a novel time-series forecasting framework to predict three key Airbnb indicators -- Revenue, Reservation Days, and Number of Reservations -- at the regional level. Using a sliding-window approach, the model forecasts trends 1 to 3 months ahead. Unlike prior studies that focus on individual listings at fixed time points, our approach constructs regional representations by integrating listing features with external contextual factors such as urban accessibility and human mobility. We convert structured tabular data into prompt-based inputs for a Large Language Model (LLM), producing comprehensive regional embeddings. These embeddings are then fed into advanced time-series models (RNN, LSTM, Transformer) to better capture complex spatio-temporal dynamics. Experiments on Seoul's Airbnb dataset show that our method reduces both average RMSE and MAE by approximately 48% compared to conventional baselines, including traditional statistical and machine learning models. Our framework not only improves forecasting accuracy but also offers practical insights for detecting oversupplied regions and supporting data-driven urban policy decisions.
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