arXiv:2511.14317cs.LG2025-11中稿 · the Workshop on Na…被引 1

提出新方法,从临床可行性和数据稳定性选最优医疗模型。

Intervention Efficiency and Perturbation Validation Framework: Capacity-Aware and Robust Clinical Model Selection under the Rashomon Effect

  • 用干预效率衡量模型在有限干预下的实际价值。
  • 通过扰动验证框架筛选出抗噪声能力强的稳定模型。
  • 适合资源受限的临床场景,提升模型可信赖度。

在临床机器学习中,多个性能相近的模型共存(即Rashomon效应)给可信部署和评估带来根本挑战。小样本、不平衡且含噪声的数据,叠加高维弱标识临床特征,加剧了模型多样性,使传统验证方法不可靠。因此,仅凭F1等指标无法确定最优模型,尤其当资源约束和操作优先级未被考虑时。为此,我们提出两个互补工具:干预效率(IE)与扰动验证框架(PVF)。IE是一种容量感知指标,量化模型在仅能实施有限干预时,识别可行动真阳性所具备的效率,将预测性能与临床实用性关联。PVF提供结构化方法,评估模型在数据扰动下的稳定性,识别出在噪声或分布偏移验证集中表现最稳定的模型。在合成与真实医疗数据集上的实证结果表明,使用这些工具能选出泛化能力更强且符合容量限制的模型,为应对临床场景中的Rashomon效应提供了新方向。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In clinical machine learning, the coexistence of multiple models with comparable performance (a manifestation of the Rashomon Effect) poses fundamental challenges for trustworthy deployment and evaluation. Small, imbalanced, and noisy datasets, coupled with high-dimensional and weakly identified clinical features, amplify this multiplicity and make conventional validation schemes unreliable. As a result, selecting among equally performing models becomes uncertain, particularly when resource constraints and operational priorities are not considered by conventional metrics like F1 score. To address these issues, we propose two complementary tools for robust model assessment and selection: Intervention Efficiency (IE) and the Perturbation Validation Framework (PVF). IE is a capacity-aware metric that quantifies how efficiently a model identifies actionable true positives when only limited interventions are feasible, thereby linking predictive performance with clinical utility. PVF introduces a structured approach to assess the stability of models under data perturbations, identifying models whose performance remains most invariant across noisy or shifted validation sets. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world healthcare datasets show that using these tools facilitates the selection of models that generalize more robustly and align with capacity constraints, offering a new direction for tackling the Rashomon Effect in clinical settings.

医疗AI模型选择鲁棒性临床实用

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