用图神经网络预测项目工期与成本,准确率提升超两成。
Resource-Based Time and Cost Prediction in Project Networks: From Statistical Modeling to Graph Neural Networks
- 构建活动-资源异构图,用GNN捕捉任务间依赖关系。
- 相比传统方法,平均误差降低23%~31%,R²从0.78升至0.91。
- 可识别资源瓶颈,适合复杂项目管理与可解释调度决策。
项目工期与成本的精准预测仍是项目管理中的核心挑战,尤其在资源受限且任务高度依赖的网络中。传统方法如关键路径法(CPM)和计划评审技术(PERT)依赖简化且静态的任务依赖与资源表现假设。本文提出一种基于资源的预测框架,将项目活动建模为异构的活动-资源图,节点表示活动与资源,边编码时间与资源依赖关系,并结合图神经网络(GNN)捕获结构与上下文关联。在合成数据集与基准项目数据集上评估了GraphSAGE与时序图网络等学习范式。实验表明,该GNN框架相较传统回归与树模型,平均绝对误差降低23%至31%,大型复杂项目网络的决定系数R²由约0.78提升至0.91。此外,学习到的嵌入可揭示资源瓶颈与关键依赖,支持更可解释、自适应的调度决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate prediction of project duration and cost remains one of the most challenging aspects of project management, particularly in resource-constrained and interdependent task networks. Traditional analytical techniques such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) and Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) rely on simplified and often static assumptions regarding task interdependencies and resource performance. This study proposes a novel resource-based predictive framework that integrates network representations of project activities with graph neural networks (GNNs) to capture structural and contextual relationships among tasks, resources, and time-cost dynamics. The model represents the project as a heterogeneous activity-resource graph in which nodes denote activities and resources, and edges encode temporal and resource dependencies. We evaluate multiple learning paradigms, including GraphSAGE and Temporal Graph Networks, on both synthetic and benchmark project datasets. Experimental results show that the proposed GNN framework achieves an average 23 to 31 percent reduction in mean absolute error compared to traditional regression and tree-based methods, while improving the coefficient of determination R2 from approximately 0.78 to 0.91 for large and complex project networks. Furthermore, the learned embeddings provide interpretable insights into resource bottlenecks and critical dependencies, enabling more explainable and adaptive scheduling decisions.
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