arXiv:2511.15112cs.LGcs.AI2025-11中稿 · Taiwan Academic Ne…

融合情感分析与事件干预,用LSTM预测台积电行业趋势

Semiconductor Industry Trend Prediction with Event Intervention Based on LSTM Model in Sentiment-Enhanced Time Series Data

  • 结合财报文本情感与内外部事件,增强时间序列数据
  • 模型准确捕捉台积电晶圆技术进展及全球市场风险
  • 适合关注半导体产业动态的研究者与投资者

本研究将深度学习与情感分析融入传统商业模型,以台积电为对象预测台湾半导体行业趋势。面对半导体行业快速的市场变化和晶圆技术发展,传统数据分析方法难以应对高维度时序数据。研究收集了台积电季报中的财务信息与文本数据,通过情感分析融合公司内部事件与外部全球事件的影响,构建情感增强型时间序列数据,并采用LSTM模型进行行业趋势预测。结果表明,模型能有效识别台积电晶圆技术的显著进展及其面临的全球市场竞争威胁,且与台积电产品发布新闻及国际媒体报道高度吻合。该方法在考虑内外部事件干预的前提下,提升了半导体行业趋势预测的准确性,为学术研究与商业决策提供了有价值的信息。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The innovation of the study is that the deep learning method and sentiment analysis are integrated in traditional business model analysis and forecasting, and the research subject is TSMC for industry trend prediction of semiconductor industry in Taiwan. For the rapid market changes and development of wafer technologies of semiconductor industry, traditional data analysis methods not perform well in the high variety and time series data. Textual data and time series data were collected from seasonal reports of TSMC including financial information. Textual data through sentiment analysis by considering the event intervention both from internal events of the company and the external global events. Using the sentiment-enhanced time series data, the LSTM model was adopted for predicting industry trend of TSMC. The prediction results reveal significant development of wafer technology of TSMC and the potential threatens in the global market, and matches the product released news of TSMC and the international news. The contribution of the work performed accurately in industry trend prediction of the semiconductor industry by considering both the internal and external event intervention, and the prediction results provide valuable information of semiconductor industry both in research and business aspects.

半导体LSTM情感分析趋势预测

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