arXiv:2511.15146stat.MLcs.LG2025-11被引 2

首次实现多维置信预测分布的有限样本校准,解决高维不确定性建模难题。

Beyond Uncertainty Sets: Leveraging Optimal Transport to Extend Conformal Predictive Distribution to Multivariate Settings

  • 用最优传输定义向量秩,构建可计算的多维预测集
  • 提出首个具有有限样本覆盖率的多维预测分布(CPD)
  • 适合需要精确高维不确定性评估的研究者

置信预测(CP)为模型输出构造不确定性集,具有有限样本覆盖保证。当非一致性得分是标量时,该方法简单直接,但传统方法仅适用于实值得分或人为降维。通过最优传输(OT),可对向量进行有序排列并定义多维分位数区域,但通常仅具备渐近覆盖性。本文通过将向量值OT分位数区域与置信化结合,恢复了有限样本、分布无关的覆盖性。候选输出的排序基于其得分与校准集得分共同计算的运输映射,形成一个在固定多面体划分下分段常数的连续最优分配问题。这一性质使整个预测集可高效刻画,并克服了传统预测集仅能判断可能性而无法反映相对概率的缺陷。在一维情况下,置信预测分布(CPD)可生成有限样本校准的预测分布。本文首次构建出多维CPD,确保任意导出的不确定性区域均具备保证覆盖性,提供保守与精确随机两种版本,后者成为经典Dempster-Hill方法的多维推广。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the scores observed on a set of calibration examples. However, this procedure is only straightforward when scores are scalar-valued, which has limited CP to real-valued scores or ad-hoc reductions to one dimension. The problem of ordering vectors has been studied via optimal transport (OT), which provides a principled method for defining vector-ranks and multivariate quantile regions, though typically with only asymptotic coverage guarantees. We restore finite-sample, distribution-free coverage by conformalizing the vector-valued OT quantile region. Here, a candidate's rank is defined via a transport map computed for the calibration scores augmented with that candidate's score. This defines a continuum of OT problems for which we prove that the resulting optimal assignment is piecewise-constant across a fixed polyhedral partition of the score space. This allows us to characterize the entire prediction set tractably, and provides the machinery to address a deeper limitation of prediction sets: that they only indicate which outcomes are plausible, but not their relative likelihood. In one dimension, conformal predictive distributions (CPDs) fill this gap by producing a predictive distribution with finite-sample calibration. Extending CPDs beyond one dimension remained an open problem. We construct, to our knowledge, the first multivariate CPDs with finite-sample calibration, i.e., they define a valid multivariate distribution where any derived uncertainty region automatically has guaranteed coverage. We present both conservative and exact randomized versions, the latter resulting in a multivariate generalization of the classical Dempster-Hill procedure.

置信预测最优传输多维建模不确定性量化

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