用动态模型解析微博博主粉丝情绪演化,发现群体意见随时间平均趋同。
Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs
- 将粉丝群视为整体代理,建模情绪随时间迭代平均演化
- 六个月内数据验证情绪轨迹与改进的French-DeGroot模型高度吻合
- 揭示了基于情感相似性的博主间隐性关联,适合社交传播研究者
在线社交媒体平台使意见领袖能够快速分发内容并捕捉受众反应,深刻影响其推广策略与广告合作。理解粉丝间情绪动态与情感传染机制对意见领袖和营销人员至关重要,这些过程塑造互动行为、品牌认知与购买决策。尽管情感分析工具可有效追踪情绪波动,但解释其演化的动态模型仍有限,常忽略网络结构及博文间与话题粉丝群体间的互动。本研究追踪了六个月内科技类微博意见领袖,通过文本挖掘量化粉丝情绪。将每位博主的受众视为单一“宏观代理”,发现情绪轨迹遵循迭代平均原则——这是众多意见形成动力学模型的基础机制,属于社会网络分析与动力系统理论的交叉框架。情绪演化与意见动力学模型高度一致,特别是引入延迟感知并区分表达与私有意见的改进版法国-德格鲁特模型。推断出的影响力结构揭示了博主间的相互依赖关系,可能源于同质性偏好:情感相似的用户订阅同一博主,共同塑造社区内共享情绪。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.
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