构建首个面向机器学习的电离层预报数据集,整合多源观测提升预测精度。
Connecting the Dots: A Machine Learning Ready Dataset for Ionospheric Forecasting Models
- 融合太阳、地磁和全球导航卫星观测,构建时空对齐的统一数据结构。
- 支持在平静与地磁活跃条件下预测垂直总电子含量,为导航系统提供保障。
- 适合空间天气研究者、卫星运控人员及机器学习模型开发者使用。
由于观测稀疏、多层地理空间耦合复杂,以及对及时准确电离层预报日益增长的需求,电离层业务预报仍是空间天气的关键挑战,影响全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)、通信、航空安全及卫星运行。作为2025年NASA Heliolab的一部分,我们提出一个精心整理的开源数据集,整合多样化的电离层与日球层观测数据,形成面向机器学习的标准化结构,旨在支持下一代预报模型并填补现有业务框架的空白。数据集涵盖太阳动力学观测台数据、太阳辐照指数(F10.7)、太阳风参数(速度与行星际磁场)、地磁活动指数(Kp、AE、SYM-H),以及NASA JPL的全球电离层总电子含量图(GIM-TEC)。同时引入全球GNSS接收机网络和众包安卓手机测量的电离层电子含量(TEC)等空间稀疏数据。该新型异构数据集在时间和空间上对齐,具备模块化结构,可支持物理与数据驱动建模。基于此数据集,我们训练并基准测试了多种时空机器学习架构,用于在平静与地磁活跃条件下的垂直总电子含量(vertical TEC)预测。本工作不仅提供大规模数据集与建模流程,还推动对电离层动态及更广泛的太阳-地球相互作用的研究,助力科学探索与业务预报。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Operational forecasting of the ionosphere remains a critical space weather challenge due to sparse observations, complex coupling across geospatial layers, and a growing need for timely, accurate predictions that support Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), communications, aviation safety, as well as satellite operations. As part of the 2025 NASA Heliolab, we present a curated, open-access dataset that integrates diverse ionospheric and heliospheric measurements into a coherent, machine learning-ready structure, designed specifically to support next-generation forecasting models and address gaps in current operational frameworks. Our workflow integrates a large selection of data sources comprising Solar Dynamic Observatory data, solar irradiance indices (F10.7), solar wind parameters (velocity and interplanetary magnetic field), geomagnetic activity indices (Kp, AE, SYM-H), and NASA JPL's Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). We also implement geospatially sparse data such as the TEC derived from the World-Wide GNSS Receiver Network and crowdsourced Android smartphone measurements. This novel heterogeneous dataset is temporally and spatially aligned into a single, modular data structure that supports both physical and data-driven modeling. Leveraging this dataset, we train and benchmark several spatiotemporal machine learning architectures for forecasting vertical TEC under both quiet and geomagnetically active conditions. This work presents an extensive dataset and modeling pipeline that enables exploration of not only ionospheric dynamics but also broader Sun-Earth interactions, supporting both scientific inquiry and operational forecasting efforts.
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