用智能体模型生成数据,机器学习预测病毒在传感器网络中的传播
Machine Learning Epidemic Predictions Using Agent-based Wireless Sensor Network Models
- 基于SEIRV模型构建智能体仿真,生成用于训练的疫情数据
- 随机森林等算法预测准确率高达R²=0.999,验证集表现稳定
- 适合网络安全与物联网异常监测方向的研究者参考
无线传感器网络(WSNs)中缺乏流行病学数据,是构建稳健模型以预测和缓解病毒、蠕虫等威胁的根本难题。现有研究多关注特定网络特性(如能量限制、节点移动性)下恶意软件传播机制。本文采用基于智能体的易感-暴露-感染-康复-免疫(SEIRV)数学模型,结合NetLogo BehaviorSpace与Python生成两组合成疫情数据集,用于多种机器学习算法的回归预测任务。目标为预测感染与康复节点数量,通过训练与测试集误差指标对比模型性能。结果显示,训练集拟合效果极佳,R²值达0.997至1.000;验证集略低但依然优异,范围为0.992至0.999。支持向量机、线性、Lasso、Ridge及ElasticNet表现较差,而随机森林、XGBoost、决策树与K近邻算法表现最优。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The lack of epidemiological data in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is a fundamental difficulty in constructing robust models to forecast and mitigate threats such as viruses and worms. Many studies have examined different epidemic models for WSNs, focusing on how malware infections spread given the network's specific properties, including energy limits and node mobility. In this study, an agent-based implementation of the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) mathematical model was employed for machine learning (ML) predictions. Using tools such as NetLogo's BehaviorSpace and Python, two epidemic synthetic datasets were generated and prepared for the application of several ML algorithms. Posed as a regression problem, the infected and recovered nodes were predicted, and the performance of these algorithms is compared using the error metrics of the train and test sets. The predictions performed well, with low error metrics and high R^2 values (0.997, 1.000, 0.999, 1.000), indicating an effective fit to the training set. The validation values were lower (0.992, 0.998, 0.971, and 0.999), as is typical when evaluating model performance on unseen data. Based on the recorded performances, support vector, linear, Lasso, Ridge, and ElasticNet regression were among the worst-performing algorithms, while Random Forest, XGBoost, Decision Trees, and k-nearest neighbors achieved the best results.
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