arXiv:2511.16013cs.LGcs.AI2025-11

用卫星数据梯度约束,让模型更准预测雾霾分布。

Physics-Guided Inductive Spatiotemporal Kriging for PM2.5 with Satellite Gradient Constraints

  • 用物理过程建模污染扩散,结合图神经网络学习时空规律。
  • 在京津冀地区实现9.52微克/立方米的误差,优于现有方法。
  • 适合城市环境监测、气象预报和政策制定者使用。

高分辨率细颗粒物(PM2.5)地图是可持续城市发展的重要基础,但受地面监测网络空间稀疏性的严重制约。传统数据驱动方法虽利用卫星气溶胶光学深度(AOD)进行填补,却常因云遮挡或夜间导致数据缺失且存在反演偏差。为此,本文提出时空物理引导的归纳型克里金网络(SPIN),通过并行图核显式建模物理平流与扩散过程,将领域知识融入深度学习。关键创新在于:不直接以有误的AOD作为输入,而是将其重构为损失函数中的空间梯度约束,使模型在保留卫星数据结构信息的同时,对数据空缺具有鲁棒性。在污染严重的京津冀及周边地区(BTHSA)验证中,SPIN达到9.52微克/立方米的平均绝对误差(MAE),生成了连续且物理合理的污染场,即便在无监测点区域也表现良好。该研究为精细环境管理提供了一种可靠、低成本、全天候的解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

High-resolution mapping of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a cornerstone of sustainable urbanism but remains critically hindered by the spatial sparsity of ground monitoring networks. While traditional data-driven methods attempt to bridge this gap using satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), they often suffer from severe, non-random data missingness (e.g., due to cloud cover or nighttime) and inversion biases. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes the Spatiotemporal Physics-Guided Inference Network (SPIN), a novel framework designed for inductive spatiotemporal kriging. Unlike conventional approaches, SPIN synergistically integrates domain knowledge into deep learning by explicitly modeling physical advection and diffusion processes via parallel graph kernels. Crucially, we introduce a paradigm-shifting training strategy: rather than using error-prone AOD as a direct input, we repurpose it as a spatial gradient constraint within the loss function. This allows the model to learn structural pollution patterns from satellite data while remaining robust to data voids. Validated in the highly polluted Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas (BTHSA), SPIN achieves a new state-of-the-art with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 9.52 ug/m^3, effectively generating continuous, physically plausible pollution fields even in unmonitored areas. This work provides a robust, low-cost, and all-weather solution for fine-grained environmental management.

PM2.5预测卫星数据物理引导图神经网络

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