arXiv:2511.16845cs.LG2025-11

提出一种可证明最小长度的序数分类置信集方法,提升预测效率。

Provably Minimum-Length Conformal Prediction Sets for Ordinal Classification

  • 将序数分类置信集建模为实例级最小长度覆盖问题,无需假设模型分布。
  • 设计滑动窗口算法,线性时间复杂度下实现每样本最优置信集。
  • 引入长度正则化变体,在保持覆盖率前提下缩小预测集大小,适合高风险场景。

序数分类广泛应用于医疗影像与诊断等高风险领域,可靠不确定性量化(UQ)对决策至关重要。符合性预测(CP)是一种提供统计有效保证的通用UQ框架,极具实践价值。然而,现有序数CP方法多依赖启发式算法,或严格要求模型在序数标签上输出单峰分布,导致难以揭示覆盖率-效率权衡,且丧失了CP方法所推崇的模型无关与分布自由特性。为此,本文提出一种模型无关的序数CP方法,可生成实例级最优预测区间。具体而言,将符合性序数分类形式化为实例级最小长度覆盖问题。为求解该问题,设计了一种滑动窗口算法,在校准数据上达到局部最优,时间复杂度仅为线性于标签候选数K。每个实例的局部最优也进一步提升了期望预测效率。此外,提出长度正则化变体,在保持覆盖率的同时缩小预测集大小。在四个来自不同领域的基准数据集上的实验表明,所提方法相较基线平均预测效率提升15%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ framework that provides statistically valid guarantees, which is especially useful in practice. However, prior ordinal CP methods mainly focus on heuristic algorithms or restrictively require the underlying model to predict a unimodal distribution over ordinal labels. Consequently, they provide limited insight into coverage-efficiency trade-offs, or a model-agnostic and distribution-free nature favored by CP methods. To this end, we fill this gap by propose an ordinal-CP method that is model-agnostic and provides instance-level optimal prediction intervals. Specifically, we formulate conformal ordinal classification as a minimum-length covering problem at the instance level. To solve this problem, we develop a sliding-window algorithm that is optimal on each calibration data, with only a linear time complexity in K, the number of label candidates. The local optimality per instance further also improves predictive efficiency in expectation. Moreover, we propose a length-regularized variant that shrinks prediction set size while preserving coverage. Experiments on four benchmark datasets from diverse domains are conducted to demonstrate the significantly improved predictive efficiency of the proposed methods over baselines (by 15% decrease on average over four datasets).

序数分类置信集不确定性量化

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