arXiv:2511.17623cs.LGcs.AI2025-11

为海量用户设计可扩展的概率负荷预测模型,兼顾精度与效率。

M$^2$OE$^2$-GL: A Family of Probabilistic Load Forecasters That Scales to Massive Customers

  • 先全局预训练再轻量微调,构建群体专用预测器家族。
  • 在真实电网数据上实现显著误差降低,支持超大规模负载部署。
  • 适合电力系统规划、智能电网运维等需要高并发预测的场景。

概率负荷预测广泛应用于电力系统规划、运行及风险敏感决策中。深度学习模型在捕捉复杂时间与上下文模式方面表现优异,显著提升了预测精度。然而,在大型配电网中面对数千甚至数十万负载时,面临部署困境:为每个用户单独建模计算与存储成本过高;而使用单一全局模型又忽视了用户类型、位置和相位带来的分布差异。以往研究多集中于单个负载预测、跨负载的全局模型或小规模个性化模型,极少同时解决异质性与可扩展性的挑战。本文提出 M2OE2-GL,即 M2OE2 概率预测器的全局到局部扩展。首先在所有馈线负载上预训练一个统一的 M2OE2 基础模型,随后通过轻量级微调生成一组紧凑的群体专属预测器。在真实电力公司数据上的评估表明,M2OE2-GL 在保持极高可扩展性的同时,实现了显著的误差下降。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Probabilistic load forecasting is widely studied and underpins power system planning, operation, and risk-aware decision making. Deep learning forecasters have shown strong ability to capture complex temporal and contextual patterns, achieving substantial accuracy gains. However, at the scale of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of loads in large distribution feeders, a deployment dilemma emerges: training and maintaining one model per customer is computationally and storage intensive, while using a single global model ignores distributional shifts across customer types, locations, and phases. Prior work typically focuses on single-load forecasters, global models across multiple loads, or adaptive/personalized models for relatively small settings, and rarely addresses the combined challenges of heterogeneity and scalability in large feeders. We propose M2OE2-GL, a global-to-local extension of the M2OE2 probabilistic forecaster. We first pretrain a single global M2OE2 base model across all feeder loads, then apply lightweight fine-tuning to derive a compact family of group-specific forecasters. Evaluated on realistic utility data, M2OE2-GL yields substantial error reductions while remaining scalable to very large numbers of loads.

负荷预测深度学习电力系统可扩展性

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