arXiv:2511.17639cs.LG2025-11AAAI

针对抖音用户长期价值预测难题,提出新型时序融合框架提升早期预测精度。

TTF: A Trapezoidal Temporal Fusion Framework for LTV Forecasting in Douyin

  • 设计梯形多时序模块处理渠道数据错位与短输入长输出问题。
  • 在抖音线上系统中使点预测误差降低4.3%,累计预测误差降低3.2%。
  • 适合大规模平台做用户增长预算优化的算法工程师参考。

在用户增长场景中,互联网公司投入大量资金用于付费获客,但可持续增长取决于获客用户产生的终身价值(LTV)是否超过客户获取成本(CAC)。为最大化LTV/CAC比率,需在早期阶段预测各渠道的LTV,以优化预算分配。该问题不同于传统时间序列预测,存在三大挑战:一是各渠道存在激活日期不同的多个未对齐的LTV序列;二是早期预测面临短输入长输出(SILO)难题;三是真实LTV序列波动剧烈、非平稳,具有更高方差和更频繁的波动。本文提出新型框架TTF(Trapezoidal Temporal Fusion),引入梯形多时序模块解决数据错位与SILO问题,并通过多塔结构MT-FusionNet输出高精度预测。该框架已部署至抖音在线系统,相比原有上线模型,点预测平均绝对百分比误差(MAPEp)下降4.3%,累计预测误差(MAPEa)下降3.2%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In the user growth scenario, Internet companies invest heavily in paid acquisition channels to acquire new users. But sustainable growth depends on acquired users' generating lifetime value (LTV) exceeding customer acquisition cost (CAC). In order to maximize LTV/CAC ratio, it is crucial to predict channel-level LTV in an early stage for further optimization of budget allocation. The LTV forecasting problem is significantly different from traditional time series forecasting problems, and there are three main challenges. Firstly, it is an unaligned multi-time series forecasting problem that each channel has a number of LTV series of different activation dates. Secondly, to predict in the early stage, it faces the imbalanced short-input long-output (SILO) challenge. Moreover, compared with the commonly used time series datasets, the real LTV series are volatile and non-stationary, with more frequent fluctuations and higher variance. In this work, we propose a novel framework called Trapezoidal Temporal Fusion (TTF) to address the above challenges. We introduce a trapezoidal multi-time series module to deal with data unalignment and SILO challenges, and output accurate predictions with a multi-tower structure called MT-FusionNet. The framework has been deployed to the online system for Douyin. Compared to the previously deployed online model, MAPEp decreased by 4.3%, and MAPEa decreased by 3.2%, where MAPEp denotes the point-wise MAPE of the LTV curve and MAPEa denotes the MAPE of the aggregated LTV.

LTV预测时序建模抖音算法

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