arXiv:2511.17663cs.LGcs.AI2025-11

用AI预测肉牛采食量,提升精准养殖与资源效率

AI-based framework to predict animal and pen feed intake in feedlot beef cattle

  • 构建环境指数与机器学习结合的预测框架
  • 个体级误差仅1.38公斤/天,群组级0.14公斤/(天·头)
  • 适合牧场管理、减废降耗与气候适应性养殖场景

技术进步正推动可持续养牛实践,电子饲喂系统生成了大量个体动物采食的纵向大数据,为实现自主精准畜牧系统提供了可能。然而,现有文献仍缺乏充分利用这些纵向大数据、综合环境条件准确预测采食量的方法。为此,我们开发了一种基于AI的框架,用于精确预测个体动物及群体水平的采食量。研究使用了2013至2024年间在爱达荷州卡门市尼古拉斯·康明斯研究中心饲料场开展的19项实验数据(超过1650万条样本),并融合了来自AgriMet网络气象站的环境数据。我们提出了两个新型环境指数:仅基于气象变量的InComfort-Index对热舒适度有较好预测能力,但对采食量预测效果有限;而整合环境变量与采食行为的混合指数EASI-Index,在预测采食量方面表现优异,但对热舒适度预测较弱。结合这两个环境指数,训练了机器学习模型,其中表现最佳的是XGBoost模型,在个体层面达到1.38公斤/天的均方根误差(RMSE),在群体层面仅为0.14公斤/(天·头)。该方法为个体与群体采食量预测提供了稳健的AI框架,具有减少饲料浪费、优化资源配置和实现气候适应性畜牧管理的潜力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Advances in technology are transforming sustainable cattle farming practices, with electronic feeding systems generating big longitudinal datasets on individual animal feed intake, offering the possibility for autonomous precision livestock systems. However, the literature still lacks a methodology that fully leverages these longitudinal big data to accurately predict feed intake accounting for environmental conditions. To fill this gap, we developed an AI-based framework to accurately predict feed intake of individual animals and pen-level aggregation. Data from 19 experiments (>16.5M samples; 2013-2024) conducted at Nancy M. Cummings Research Extension & Education Center (Carmen, ID) feedlot facility and environmental data from AgriMet Network weather stations were used to develop two novel environmental indices: InComfort-Index, based solely on meteorological variables, showed good predictive capability for thermal comfort but had limited ability to predict feed intake; EASI-Index, a hybrid index integrating environmental variables with feed intake behavior, performed well in predicting feed intake but was less effective for thermal comfort. Together with the environmental indices, machine learning models were trained and the best-performing machine learning model (XGBoost) accuracy was RMSE of 1.38 kg/day for animal-level and only 0.14 kg/(day-animal) at pen-level. This approach provides a robust AI-based framework for predicting feed intake in individual animals and pens, with potential applications in precision management of feedlot cattle, through feed waste reduction, resource optimization, and climate-adaptive livestock management.

AI预测精准养殖饲料管理环境建模

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