arXiv:2511.17861cs.LGstat.ML2025-11AAAI被引 1

提出无需近似指示函数的代价敏感共形训练,可严格控制预测集大小。

Cost-Sensitive Conformal Training with Provably Controllable Learning Bounds

  • 用真实标签排名加权替代近似指示函数,避免误差累积
  • 理论证明目标函数上界为标签期望排名,保证学习边界可控
  • 实测平均预测集大小减少21.38%,提升预测效率

共形预测(Conformal Prediction, CP)通过集合预测确保真标签以有效概率被包含。传统共形训练方法通过最小化预测集大小来对齐不确定性度量,通常依赖Sigmoid或高斯误差函数等代理指示函数。但这些代理函数与真实指示函数之间缺乏统一误差界,导致学习边界不可控。本文提出一种不依赖指示函数近似的代价敏感共形训练算法。理论上证明:最小化预测集期望大小等价于最小化真实标签的期望排名。为此,设计基于真实标签排名的加权策略,对每个样本赋予相应权重。分析表明,所提加权目标与预测集期望大小间存在紧致上界。大量实验验证了理论有效性,在预测效率上优于其他共形训练方法,平均预测集大小降低21.38%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP, conformal training methods minimize the size of the prediction sets. A typical way is to use a surrogate indicator function, usually Sigmoid or Gaussian error function. However, these surrogate functions do not have a uniform error bound to the indicator function, leading to uncontrollable learning bounds. In this paper, we propose a simple cost-sensitive conformal training algorithm that does not rely on the indicator approximation mechanism. Specifically, we theoretically show that minimizing the expected size of prediction sets is upper bounded by the expected rank of true labels. To this end, we develop a rank weighting strategy that assigns the weight using the rank of true label on each data sample. Our analysis provably demonstrates the tightness between the proposed weighted objective and the expected size of conformal prediction sets. Extensive experiments verify the validity of our theoretical insights, and superior empirical performance over other conformal training in terms of predictive efficiency with 21.38% reduction for average prediction set size.

共形预测不确定性量化机器学习优化

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