arXiv:2511.18191cs.LG2025-11被引 1

用廉价模型预估未来序列,大幅加速高精度时间序列预测。

Accelerating Time Series Foundation Models with Speculative Decoding

  • 用轻量模型预估多个未来片段,再由大模型并行验证并修正。
  • 在五类时序模型上实现最高3.0倍推理加速,误差可控。
  • 适合对延迟敏感的实时预测场景,如金融、工业监控。

时间序列预测在低延迟要求下驱动运营决策,自回归时序基础模型(TSFMs)提供最精准预测,但推理时延随预测步数线性增长。我们发现一个更轻量的模型能近似准确地预测大部分未来片段,而因果模型可并行验证一整块未来内容,尽管生成过程是逐个进行的。这正是大模型中推测解码的优势场景,但传统方法依赖离散词汇表。为此,我们提出面向连续片段自回归的推测解码:廉价模型生成K个未来片段,目标模型通过单次因果前向传播并行验证,基于对数域高斯似然比测试逐个接受或拒绝,首个被拒片段由目标模型自身补全。理论上保证加速输出与纯目标解码的均方误差在可调接受温度控制的范围内;吞吐量服从截断几何分布,加速效果部署前可预测。实验表明,在五类TSFM中实现最高3.0倍推理加速,同时保持目标与草案间的精度平衡,并识别出可支持单次验证的架构及不适用场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting drives operational decisions under tight latency budgets, and autoregressive time series foundation models (TSFMs) increasingly deliver the most accurate forecasts. That accuracy is paid for at inference, since a horizon of $H$ steps takes $\lceil H / P\rceil$ sequential forward passes of a large model, so latency grows with exactly the long horizons these models are prized for. Yet a far cheaper model predicts most next patches nearly as well as the large one, and causal models can verify a block of future patches in one parallel pass even though they generate them one at a time. These are precisely the conditions under which speculative decoding thrives in LLMs, but its ingredients are all defined over discrete vocabularies. We therefore develop speculative decoding for continuous patch autoregression. A cheap draft proposes $K$ future patches, and the target verifies all of them in a single causal pass, accepting each by a log-domain Gaussian likelihood-ratio test and correcting the first rejection with its own prediction. We prove that the accelerated output stays within a squared-error radius of target-only decoding set by an acceptance temperature, and that throughput follows a capped-geometric law that makes speedups predictable before deployment. The method delivers up to $3.0 \times$ inference speedup at accuracy between target and draft across five TSFM families, and we characterize which architectures admit single-pass verification and when speculation does not pay.

时间序列推理加速推测解码

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