arXiv:2511.18631cs.LG2025-11被引 2

构建科学交叉领域预测的大型时序图基准,助力发现前沿研究方向

FOS: A Large-Scale Temporal Graph Benchmark for Scientific Interdisciplinary Link Prediction

  • 基于6.5万科研子领域构建1827-2024年时序共现图,节点含语义嵌入,边带时间与拓扑特征
  • 引入首次连接预测任务,实验证明文本描述长度显著提升准确率,不同模型在不同设置下表现各异
  • 适用于预测科学前沿、跨学科研究的学者,支持可复现的基准测试

科学交叉突破多为意外产生,预测新研究领域形成仍是重大挑战。我们提出FOS(Future Of Science),一个全面的时间感知图基准,重建了1827–2024年间涵盖19个大领域的65,027个科研子领域的年度共现图。图中边表示某篇论文中两个领域同时出现,带有发表年份时间戳;节点包含语义嵌入,边则由时间与拓扑描述符表征。我们将新领域间联结的预测建模为时序链接预测任务,重点关注象征开创性交叉方向的“首次连接”。通过大量实验评估多种先进时序图架构,在多种负采样策略下发现:(i) 对领域进行长文本描述嵌入能显著提升预测精度;(ii) 不同模型类别在不同评估设置下表现更优。案例分析显示,FOS上排名靠前的链接预测与后续年份学术出版物中真实出现的领域组合高度一致。我们公开发布FOS数据集、时间划分及评估代码,旨在建立可复现的基准以推动科学前沿预测研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Interdisciplinary scientific breakthroughs mostly emerge unexpectedly, and forecasting the formation of novel research fields remains a major challenge. We introduce FOS (Future Of Science), a comprehensive time-aware graph-based benchmark that reconstructs annual co-occurrence graphs of 65,027 research sub-fields (spanning 19 general domains) over the period 1827-2024. In these graphs, edges denote the co-occurrence of two fields in a single publication and are timestamped with the corresponding publication year. Nodes are enriched with semantic embeddings, and edges are characterized by temporal and topological descriptors. We formulate the prediction of new field-pair linkages as a temporal link-prediction task, emphasizing the "first-time" connections that signify pioneering interdisciplinary directions. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art temporal graph architectures under multiple negative-sampling regimes and show that (i) embedding long-form textual descriptions of fields significantly boosts prediction accuracy, and (ii) distinct model classes excel under different evaluation settings. Case analyses show that top-ranked link predictions on FOS align with field pairings that emerge in subsequent years of academic publications. We publicly release FOS, along with its temporal data splits and evaluation code, to establish a reproducible benchmark for advancing research in predicting scientific frontiers.

科学预测时序图跨学科

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