用轴向注意力网络预测足球比赛每名球员、球队和整场比赛的13种动作次数。
Large-Scale In-Game Outcome Forecasting for Match, Team and Players in Football using an Axial Transformer Neural Network
- 采用轴向变换器捕捉比赛时序动态与球员间交互关系。
- 单场比赛可实时生成约7.5万次低延迟预测。
- 适合战术分析、体育博彩与直播解说场景使用。
足球比赛具有复杂的攻防互动,球员会执行传球、射门、抢断、犯规等13类动作以争取进球并赢得比赛。准确预测每名球员在比赛中完成各类动作的总数,对战术决策、体育博彩及电视转播分析具有重要意义。该预测需综合考虑比赛状态、球员能力、团队协作以及比赛进程的时间动态。本文提出一种基于轴向变换器(axial transformer)的神经网络模型,可联合且递归地在多个时间点预测球员、球队及全场比赛层面的13类动作总次数。所设计的轴向变换器在理论上等价于标准序列变换器,并在实验中表现优异。实证表明,该模型能持续可靠地进行预测,单场比赛可实现约7.5万次低延迟实时预测。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Football (soccer) is a sport that is characterised by complex game play, where players perform a variety of actions, such as passes, shots, tackles, fouls, in order to score goals, and ultimately win matches. Accurately forecasting the total number of each action that each player will complete during a match is desirable for a variety of applications, including tactical decision-making, sports betting, and for television broadcast commentary and analysis. Such predictions must consider the game state, the ability and skill of the players in both teams, the interactions between the players, and the temporal dynamics of the game as it develops. In this paper, we present a transformer-based neural network that jointly and recurrently predicts the expected totals for thirteen individual actions at multiple time-steps during the match, and where predictions are made for each individual player, each team and at the game-level. The neural network is based on an \emph{axial transformer} that efficiently captures the temporal dynamics as the game progresses, and the interactions between the players at each time-step. We present a novel axial transformer design that we show is equivalent to a regular sequential transformer, and the design performs well experimentally. We show empirically that the model can make consistent and reliable predictions, and efficiently makes $\sim$75,000 live predictions at low latency for each game.
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