arXiv:2511.18846cs.LGcs.AI2025-11

WaveTuner通过全频段调优提升时间序列预测精度

WaveTuner: Comprehensive Wavelet Subband Tuning for Time Series Forecasting

  • 引入自适应波段权重分配与多分支专用建模
  • 在8个真实数据集上达到领先预测性能
  • 适合需要精细捕捉高频波动的时序分析场景

由于现实世界时间序列固有的复杂性,其时间模式常在多个交织尺度上演化,包括长期周期性、短期波动和突发状态转变。现有方法虽在时域或频域设计了多种分解技术以分离趋势-季节成分及高低频成分,但基于小波域的方法提供了统一的多分辨率表示,并具备精确的时间-频率定位能力。然而,多数小波方法存在持续偏向递归分解低频成分的缺陷,严重低估了对精确预测至关重要的细微高频成分。为此,我们提出WaveTuner,一种基于全谱子带调优的小波分解框架。该框架包含两个核心模块:(i) 自适应小波精炼模块,将时间序列转化为时频系数,利用自适应路由动态分配子带权重,并生成子带特定嵌入以支持精炼;(ii) 多分支专业化模块,采用多个功能分支,每个分支由具有不同函数阶数的柯尔莫哥洛夫-阿诺德网络(KAN)实现,用于建模特定频谱子带。结合这两个模块,WaveTuner在统一的时频框架内全面调优全局趋势与局部变化。在八个真实世界数据集上的广泛实验表明,WaveTuner在时间序列预测中实现了最先进性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Due to the inherent complexity, temporal patterns in real-world time series often evolve across multiple intertwined scales, including long-term periodicity, short-term fluctuations, and abrupt regime shifts. While existing literature has designed many sophisticated decomposition approaches based on the time or frequency domain to partition trend-seasonality components and high-low frequency components, an alternative line of approaches based on the wavelet domain has been proposed to provide a unified multi-resolution representation with precise time-frequency localization. However, most wavelet-based methods suffer from a persistent bias toward recursively decomposing only low-frequency components, severely underutilizing subtle yet informative high-frequency components that are pivotal for precise time series forecasting. To address this problem, we propose WaveTuner, a Wavelet decomposition framework empowered by full-spectrum subband Tuning for time series forecasting. Concretely, WaveTuner comprises two key modules: (i) Adaptive Wavelet Refinement module, that transforms time series into time-frequency coefficients, utilizes an adaptive router to dynamically assign subband weights, and generates subband-specific embeddings to support refinement; and (ii) Multi-Branch Specialization module, that employs multiple functional branches, each instantiated as a flexible Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) with a distinct functional order to model a specific spectral subband. Equipped with these modules, WaveTuner comprehensively tunes global trends and local variations within a unified time-frequency framework. Extensive experiments on eight real-world datasets demonstrate WaveTuner achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance in time series forecasting.

时间序列小波分析预测建模

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